I bet if you took a trend line off those first 2 lows from the beginning of 2017 and extended it through, you’d find that PA broke below that line 2 weeks ago. I would not be surprised to see EU pullback, but it may only move back so far as to retest that resistance line before dropping further down. Looking left, price has already dropped below a large amount of previous structure but there does appear to be a lot of “mess” between the 1.1400 to 1.1100 area so it may well struggle to push through. Either way, there’s bound to be opportunities for a pip or 2 :)
The asset managers are way too much invested in their EUR longs and this is something they have been building for the past two years. Too long of an answer here but I fully agree with your argument. It is all a matter of perspective, timeframe and risk/reward.
Here is a snapshot of the TFF reports on the weekly chart just o give you more details. There is more into the data though.
Major downtrend has started when we broke your middle line resistance in April => next stop 1.06