EURUSD: Long idea based on techinicals

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
The weekly chart just extended to the lower line of the fork. Looking at all metrics and COT data together, this may be the turning point.

Trade with care,
Comment: Looking good so far
dont loose ur money it is in downtrend breaking weekly resistance
@ARUN003, This is a weekly chart, so no long trade opened yet. I am already short from 1.2401 and rode this down all the way. This is just an idea of starting to think about long, obviously long can't be opened without confirmation. Will update this as price action develops. Thanks for your message.
dezza88 ARUN003
@ARUN003, Agreed. USD is too strong atm
I’m sorry but your pitchfork is really poor. It doesn’t pick up ANY of the hits along the centre or top lines and gets just a single hit on the current candle since the starting point. I’m fairly new to trading but even I know that for a trend line to be even remotely valid you need at least 3 or 4 touches for it to be considered a worthwhile support/resistance marker.

I bet if you took a trend line off those first 2 lows from the beginning of 2017 and extended it through, you’d find that PA broke below that line 2 weeks ago. I would not be surprised to see EU pullback, but it may only move back so far as to retest that resistance line before dropping further down. Looking left, price has already dropped below a large amount of previous structure but there does appear to be a lot of “mess” between the 1.1400 to 1.1100 area so it may well struggle to push through. Either way, there’s bound to be opportunities for a pip or 2 :)
ForexScientist TradingHarmony
@TradingHarmony, this is an idea worth thinking about. As you also mentioned, the perspective determines if a trade can be made off this lines or not. I still have not see enough evidence in the data to support further down move. The price can go lower then I'll be ready to take advantage of it. I used the monthly SZ to short EUR and that's is still running (I am biased toward longer term trades). But now the COT data shows me some pullback is possible and this fork happens to be there.

The asset managers are way too much invested in their EUR longs and this is something they have been building for the past two years. Too long of an answer here but I fully agree with your argument. It is all a matter of perspective, timeframe and risk/reward.

Here is a snapshot of the TFF reports on the weekly chart just o give you more details. There is more into the data though.

The hole fundamental picture has changed..! Interest rates in US going up with most probably 2 hykes before the end of the year. Inflation flying high... Europe in distress - add the pressure from Turkey.

Major downtrend has started when we broke your middle line resistance in April => next stop 1.06

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