Down and Up, Up and Down ?

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Last week this pair continues the rally to previous high 1.317 resistance back to positive area, this pair seems like trying to break the triple fib. level resistance and aim for 1.34, but a failure to break te resistance this pair may go back to November low. A clear break from the 1.265 low on weekly chart may bring this pair further down.

Trend line :
The price is now at resistance level , a pull back can happen before another rally from the uptrend line around 1.304 while below that level this pair may stay inside 1.265-1.317 mid term range.

MACD histogram :
I see a high in the histogram at 0.0058, if this pair break the resistance, go up to 1.34 then bounce back down to support and the MACD histogram can not pass above 0.0058 before going down and make a new lower high below that level, then the actual momentum is decreasing and we have a negative divergence that may lead to reversal.

at the previous low (Nov) the RSI can't go below 30 and bounce back up again, this means we're still in an uptrend market until reversal is confirmed.

Next week's important events in Economic calendar are :
1. UK Consumer Price Index (Dec 18)
2. RBA Meeting Minutes (Dec 18)
3. BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Dec 20)
4. German Producer Price Index (Dec 20)
5. US Gross Domestic Product (Dec 20)
6. UK Gross Domestic Product (Dec 21)


Agree with your analysis. The high is critical and if it does not break soon we will probably see a huge reversal. I am looking to trade that reversal if it forms.

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