EURTRY - Bearish Swing Due? - What goes up must come down?

FX_IDC:EURTRY   Euro / Turkish Lira
EURTRY has been clearing up-trending for over a decade. The upside momentum has been significantly stronger in recent years, as seen by the more aggressive trend support lines. How long will the upside continue? Is price finally reaching a high?

The main reason for me wanting to open a long-term short on EURTRY is the positive swap rate. I personally believe that these is no other currency pair (offered by retail Forex brokers) that has such an opportunity - an extremely high short swap rate with possible strong downside.

A few things to consider...

Price is looking over-extended. Recent bullish moves have been euphoric. The swing in January 2017 was almost vertical. From past experience, this generally means that a correction is due, and usually a major correction.

Bearish pin bars and inside-bars. The current bullish swing is struggling to form a higher high. 31/07 saw a clear bearish pin bar close. This has been followed by an inside-bar with a bearish break-out. If price continues to remain quiet this week, this weeks candle may close another inside-bar. Possible signal of a shift in momentum?

There is a lot of support. If price does start heading South, it may find a lot of support (unless EURTRY plummets). Dynamic support, trend support and horizontal levels have been identified on the chart. The only positive from all this support is that if the EURTRY closes below these support areas, they may then act as resistance, possibly helping price to move lower.

Brexit. Yes, that word that frustrates the British (and perhaps the Europeans?). Who knows what this will bring to the EUR and GBP in coming months. A weakening Euro is a possibility but your guess is as good as mine.

If the position is stopped-out, I will look for the next opportunity to short the pair. I believe this pair offers potential trades that should not be missed.


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