FX_IDC:EURNZD   Euro / New Zealand Dollar



Recently Data in the Eurozone has been improving and there is much talk about when the ECB will start the process of tapering their QE program. Although inflation figures can be misleading to the untrained eye it is important to focus on what the Central Bank is Basing it's decisions on. Inflation increased by 1.3% in June a slightly lower figure than the months before but if you remove the volatile prices of energy, Alcohol and tabbaco then core inflation went up to 1.1% from 0.9% in May. These will be the figures the ECB will be making policy decisions from making the EURO A strong currency at the moment.
There are plenty of weak currencies out there to match the Euro against however a lot of them have already had a good bullish run and possible looking at consolidation. The calendar next week picks the NZD as potentially weak, albeit it might be short term it is enough to tern a profit. The GDT index came in weaker last week which is 20% of New Zealands GDP and Monday evening is to see the release of CPI q/q expected to drop from 1.0% to 0.2% which could cause a temporary sell of in the NZD.


Their is a good level of support for this currency pair at the 15550 level which is also a 50% fibonacci retracment level from the trend reversal at 15460. This would be a good place to enter with a target at the most recent peak of 15850 and a stop loss around the 15500 level.

Trade Management

The 161.80 extension from 15550 brings us an initial take profit or stop loss move level of 15700 so we will be possibly looking to make changes at this point. If NZD CPI comes in better than expected then this trade set up will be void.
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