Buy opportunity developing on EURJPY?

With the benefit of hindsight, the downtrend on EUR/JPY starting in August 2015 was the perfect long-term trend trade - a series of lower lows & lower highs in a fairly clearly defined channel. Since June 2016 the price has been in a range narrowing towards the upside. Providing support at the moment is the historic 61.8% Fib retracement at 113.560 from the last uptrend and a line at 111.230 that marked the swing level of the last reversal.

A look at the longer-term weekly MACD data suggests a move upwards is on the cards, although how quickly that'll occur remains to be seen. I'd be looking to Buy somewhere around that 113.5 level with the Stop/Loss at 110.8-110.9, and a target at the 38.2% FIb of the smaller retracement (shown in green on the chart) at 121.61, but always with the awareness that this upward move may take a few false starts.

116.442, the 23.6% Fib retracement would be a zone of congestion, and the cautious approach would be close part of the position at this level & move the stop to break-even, thus ensuring a profit should the price stumble at this resistance.

Comment:

Just to clarify the above idea - I don't think this is a long-term reversal of the Euro against the Yen, rather a bigger-than-previous correction on the Day scale. In terms of weeks into months, continued Euro weakness is more plausible but I think price is at a major support at the moment. Either way, a big move one way or another is coming. The uber-cautious may wish to watch for a retracement before entering short at, say, 120-121, but I think there is potential pips to be made on the counter-trend.

As always, if you think I've got it wrong, or you think it's a completely crazy idea, I welcome your comments/constructive criticisms/converstaion, so please leave a comment!

Comment:

Still waiting for any kind of validation (or otherwise) of this idea. We're very nearly at 113.56 - the 61.8% Fib level of the older 2012-2014 uptrend, so this is a key area of support: how the price acts around this area is going to be very important in the longer term. If the correction I'm expecting does happen it may well do very soon, for now, I'm watching how far the price goes down - 112.2 might be the place to buy-in...

Comment:

Nice to see this one happen as expected!