Note the Bolinger indications... 2007, the RSI was dropping, yet the pair was volatile but highs remained level, without a lot of band restriction, with of course a significant drop in the pair and the markets. Then in 2011, both the slopes of RSI and the pair fell in tandem, band width tightened, and the drop was manageable and perhaps somewhat predictable. Now we have since January 2013 a drop in RSI, yet a huge rise in the pair, and the markets. Then, during this period, fighting the RSI downtrend, yet another tightening of Bolinger bands, and a pop in the pair and markets (Abenomics effect). As you can see, today we have perhaps the most tightening of the bands to date and the pair is following the RSI downtrend, which has room to go lower, and much lower if it has to, to 2011 levels, or even 2008. Or, it can do as it did in November 2013 and pop on the Draghinomics effect, which was born June 5th. Note, during the last two restrictions, the pair followed the trend along the edge of the bands, and it is at its lower trend line now. Which comes first, the chicken or the egg. Without the USA to stop the spread of ISIS (Shuni) in Iraq, and points further, perhaps Kuwait, and the Gulf shipping access, and challenge the Saudi's oil, who can what will happen to the price of oil. So Iran (Shiite) sends troops to defend Baghdad. The outcome, not predictable, could turn, yet again, into another Holy War. The price of oil, regardless of what happens, predictable, up. Band restriction reflecting tensions in the world, and volatility, I say this pair follows the downtrend it is heading on, bottom of a newly expanding band width, until their in some truce or certainty in this crisis. Markets will follow. Why can't we just all get along, have kids, get fat, grow old together, and love each other?