BullMarkets
Short

EUR JPY - Potential huge short swing trade

OANDA:EURJPY   Euro / Japanese Yen
Hit short term resistance on the daily chart and was rejected. Wait for the candle to complete and for confirmation before entering the trade. Although also be prepared for this to drop very quickly when it does. With such a tight stop and a good risk/reward ratio it may be worth entering and using a hedge buy position as your stop loss as this downward trend is very strong and not likely to change any time soon although the signs of reversal are much more likely to come from the USD JPY pair which seems to front run the other majors/minors.

This pair (and all other JPY pairs for that matter) is largely dependent on the global economy tanking, led by the US. The JPY has been seen as a safe haven asset (hence the flash crash last week as buyers rushed in) and the BOJ have openly stated that they have no stimulus to keep the currency within a specific range since they have exhausted these tactics in 2017 (see my link to article in my USD JPY analysis). The JPY has a long way to fall and is a great trade to get into in terms of a swing trade. I expect the JPY and all of it's pairs to take about 1.5 months to bottom. I have a price target on this but it is related to USD JPY so I will make a separate analysis with a longer term view for that.

Personally this is a longer term swing trade for me which I will keep adding to and will hedge using buy orders to protect any consolidation periods/corrections. It's not too late to get involved in this one and could be a really nice start to 2019. Note that this opinion stands for all of the JPY pairs within the next 1-2 months so depending on which broker you use this has a huge potential for a great trade as it has an excellent risk/reward ratio and is insulated from any of the potential global macroeconomic factors or a wider slow down as it's one of a very few (if not the only) safe haven asset right now. Just for clarification here I am referring to the JPY as a whole rather than this specific pair.

This is my first analysis, if you like it please give me a thumbs up and please feel free to comment as I am passionate about sharing ideas with other traders.

Happy trading everyone!

Alex
Trade active: Update: I have had to hedge most of my JPY short positions for now, all other than the EUR and the CHF. The US stock market has had 5 good days in a row and is closely correlated with the strength of the JPY. I expect the US market to start tanking again next week and with that we should see the JPY strengthen and these positions start to play out favourably although this one particularly I haven't had to hedge.
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