Yesterday there was a systematic market shock as over-hyped, over-price bull run ran out of steam. People were panicking and speculating right and left. Price was dropping, exchange apps were crashing and ETH even dropped to $700 on Kraken. Not sure if anyone managed to buy at that price level as all exchanges at that moment have crashed. But nevertheless, it is an impressive 24hr drop for ETH from $1970 to $700! Today, at 9am GMT , yet another "crash" where ETH dropped from $1600 to $1360 just in an hour!
Is this a correction? Retrace or are we now in the bear market?
There can be lots of debate on how you slide and dice data. At a macro level, BTC "the one that rules them all" usually moves ahead of the market. Altcoins usually are forced to follow. BTC has risen about 200% since December 2020. ETH with a little lag has risen about 220% during the same period. Looking at the raw data one could easily be mistaken that ETH overperformed BTC , however, I would doubt that's the case. Since there is a price lag, market is dictated by BTC and altcoins are much more price-sensitive than BTC I find ETH/USD overlay over BTC /USD to be a good indicator of what is going on in the market. The way I see it is that since 14th of Jan market has been overpriced and the correction was due. Market was overhyped and the higher it rises, the harder it falls. The last two days confirm the change in pattern. A key question remains - what's next?
I have seen all sorts of wild speculations yesterday. The reality is that no one knows. Market is in shock, the pattern has changed, a new baseline needs to form to evaluate what is overpriced and what is underpriced. It is very likely that with today's US open, the price will drop further.
The position is - do not freak out. Market will be testing for the bottom and it may drop significantly lower.
Forecasted highs are at FOMO. Of course, it is great if you can be glued to the screen, buy the dip at ETH $1355 and sell at $1510 15 mins later. But most won't.
There is no mid-way point today to judge what is a good price.
Forecasted lows are at FOMO too! I do not believe that ETH will drop below yesterdays ETH $700 for a sustainable period of time. However, there is a massive gap between the current price of ETH $1500 and $700!
Enjoy the FOMO! 🤑🍿
If you would like to have early access to my TA's, make your best guess if it is a Retrace, Correction or are we in a long run Bear Market now!
I think this currency doesn’t do what we expect!! It found support around 1400 and I think it will bounce off that level.