vyas2468

ES Update - Breaks 61.8%!

CME_MINI:ES1!   S&P 500 E-mini Futures
Following from my last, I mentioned that the full half way back would be an area of interest for shorts if lower time-frames confirmed. I am still not in any swing positions because no confirmation was given. In fact, the full half way back 61.8% has failed suggesting from my way of framing the markets that price is due to head higher.

This recent move up in a V shape has taken out previous highs thus far, so I will be looking for a pull back to the respective 50% level. Currently this stands at 2808. However, I would require a confirmation on the lower-time frames before entering into any positions. Price is quite far from the area of interest, and who knows, it could continue higher without giving any opportunities. If price is to continue moving higher, I will just trace my fibonacci levels accordingly to get my next pull-back levels of interest.

Although there is support levels visually around 2729 which may be a reason for the reversal to the upside on ES, I don't consider myself with the subjective nature of support and resistance . One can say my approach of Fibonacci analysis is subjective too. The only difference is that I have used this approach for a long enough time that I am able to objectively identify my levels in a consistent way. Anyway, if price is to continue higher, the larger long setups from the beginning of the year have not hit target yet at 3110 region. So, if price is to continue higher in "waves" (term used loosely - not Elliott waves ), this is the target I would be looking at to begin with because there has been no confirmation of longs failing YET.

Some comments I would like to summarize with:
1. I am looking for long opportunities. Currently area of interest is at 2808.00. However, this could change with price movement so I will be looking at continuing to trace the ES in real time too.
2. The long setup from the beginning of the year has not failed yet.
3. I am not going to remain biased though. If there is evidence using my approach to suggest long opportunities fail, I will consider short opportunities.
4. If you also day trade like me, you can capitalize on short-term opportunities in either direction.
5. Patience is key and confirmation is required before entering into any setup.
6. Always trade whichever setup trades first. If you are in a situation where you are between a long and short opportunity, trade the setup that trades first.
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