mansourelkehya

DXY Breakout Next Week

Long
TVC:DXY   U.S. Dollar Currency Index
Dxy is still doing it’s thing. Today’s price bar touched both interior ends of the wedge . The triangle’s getting tighter and tighter. Soon, it has to pop.

Fundamentals point to the upside. We’re seeing CBs globally mention rate hikes and slowing/stopping bond purchases and QE . Yellen warned of a stronger dollar. The increasing inflation we’re seeing will eventually force the fed to raise yields/rates. The question is will this happen in 2021 or January-March? I’m half expecting rates to go up Oct-Dec to surprise the markets and catch everyone off guard.

Technically speaking we just made a clear pivot after making the double bottom . Various Indicators are showing signal a reversal in dxy o the weekly and monthly timeframes. They show some slowdown on the daily but imo that’s just a liquidity grab for more upside. Key developments to look for are a break of the triangle and a golden cross (which will happen in the next 10 or so days at this rate). Should these happen, upside targets are the same as in the linked idea.

That said, if dxy rejects the break above next week, it will definitely push to 92, 91.5, and eventually test the double bottom support to make either a triple bottom or break through to the low 80s / high 70s. Though I don’t think this outcome will happen unless we get a black swan event.

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