Is a Dollar surprise coming?

'Everybody' knows that the US Dollar is gonna die. Right? The prevailing wisdom is that QE Infinity will tank the Dollar. Well, it's not that simple. The Dollar's strength depends on numerous other factors, the key one is demand.

Ahhhh.. so the USA - if you believe it - has conquered COVID-19, and international trade is about to be kickstarted. Or so the story goes. Whilst I'm sceptical, it could be true for a while. Lets say over the next two quarters. If a surge in demand happens - USD being liquid gold after the Gold Standard was abolished many moons ago.

The chart shows that there is a 4 hour trend (amber line) heading north. Yes - it could fail, but the probability at this point is for the north. Sure - enough it may bounce through the trend line south and then rocket north. DXY is a wild one, so anything is possible.

But what does that mean if USD strengthens over the next two or three quarters? It means there will be bearish pressure on stock indices, metals and some commodities. Bearish pressure doesn't mean they're all gonna correct. It's not that simple.

What's the point of watching the USD in the DXY? Well you also gotta watch USD priced forex pairs. It gets complicated because USD affects stock indices which in turn affect forex. What does it all mean? It means 'avoid over confidence' in trading. Small profits taken from small position sizes across much volatility is no bad thing. They all add up. Large position sizes in a higher volatility is a good way to burn and account.

Stay safe. Wash your hands. Protect your account. Avoid FOMO. Don't burn cash! Is that okay?

Disclaimers: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.

Comment:

Okay fellow traders - DXY is a very difficult one. It's totally wild. None of us can know if it will rock north or collapse south. Probability still remains for the north but that's only 51% - how far north is a separate problem. But I also expect in a 49% chance that price will collapse.

Anything can happen with it.

There is a 2 hour trend developing.

Comment:

Looking deeper

Comment:

Nice place for a controlled loss.

Comment:

CAUTION: Price action is changing. The DXY is no longer looking very happy for the north on this time frame.

Don't get a surprise - the wrong way in the market.

Comment:

I'm surprised that the dollar is staying afloat. I don't know why. I don't need to know really. Find the trend. But it could crash. I never said it couldn't.

Comment:

Surprise!