But other data in September exceeded expectations. For example, the unemployment rate in September fell to 4.2% from 4.4% in August. Moreover, wage growth was also significantly better than expected, with a 0.5 per cent rise in September, better than expected 0.3 per cent and 0.1 per cent in August.
Overall, the number of jobs added to U.S. nonfarm payrolls in September was temporarily negative, but labor participation rose to a record high, suggesting the labor market continues to improve. New non-farm payrolls in the U.S. could pick up in October, as the labor force returns to work and post-disaster reconstruction.
After the non-farm payrolls report, the probability of a fed rate hike in December jumped from 78% to 92%. Markets also reacted quickly, with the dollar index rising, the euro , precious metals, and U.S. debt falling. But after the dollar index began to fall, the euro rallied against the dollar.
At the moment, the dollar index's medium-term downtrend has not changed. But at the daily line level, the dollar index has the potential to form a "head and shoulders", with the current "left shoulder" and "head" completed and its "right shoulder" near 92.00.
The euro/dollar also has a prototype of "head and shoulder" at the daily line level, with its "left shoulder" and "head" finished, with "right shoulder" near 1.1900.
If the dollar index's "head and shoulders" can be completed, the dollar index's rebound in the fourth quarter is likely to be close to 97.20, while the euro/dollar pullback could be close to 1.1230.
Can the "head and shoulders" of the dollar index be completed? Depends on the European interest rate decision, the European in September after the meeting, Mario draghi has said at a news conference, the most of the decision could be made in October.
But currently not sure of the European will be in October's policy-setting meeting has started to shrink the , but one thing is for sure, before the start of the European central bank's policy-setting meeting in October the euro/dollar will be supported and continue to go up, to 1.1900, then I will start buying the euro against the dollar.