NFP Preview with DXY Chart

TVC:DXY   U.S. Dollar Currency Index
There looks to be a general consensus among forecasters that the weather will play a key part in job creation, which may hamper numbers to some degree. That said, the volatility in the monthly job gains has notable, ranging inside 150-250K, though inside these levels, the Fed will be content in maintaining their program of gradual rate increases through the year. The unemployment rate may also dip to 4.0%, but under the circumstances, the view is that the US is close to full employment, with inflation the only fly in the ointment.

Back to the data, and it will be touch and go whether a healthy set of data can spur the USD to recoup some ground, with all in agreement that the the current purge is down to a lack of confidence and concerns over the US debt ceiling. Average earnings are still not expected to rise to any material degree, with a range of +0.1-0.3% expected and recent pay increases and bonus payments (off the back of the tax cuts), not expected to feed through until Feb-Mar at the earliest.
Kind regards

Rajan Dhall MSTA


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