Dear Friends
I thought it would be a good idea to share with you my plan for the coming week.
New Zealand dollar
NZDUSD
This pair is very bearish both on Monthly TF. It made several attempts to go lower and each time failed BUT it is still below both trend lines and both EMAs therefore it is still bearish. On the Weekly TF also last week it came back below the support and close below it. But we cannot Short NZDUSD anymore as on the Daily TF on Friday it reached the support and bounced. Therefore Short Term it is bullish and considering what we mentioned about USDOLLAR we look for any bullish evidence to go Long. Both 5000 and 10000 Volume charts broke the resistance and offering a nice Bullish opportunity.
Action: BUY on 5000 Volume Chart with pending order at the high at 0.6550
NZDCHF
Similar to NZDUSD, this pair also is offering a great Shorting opportunity on the Monthly and Weekly TF. Perhaps the best pair of All is this one as it has massive space to go lower But on Friday we have reached or getting very close to the support on Daily TF. Obviously going Short into the support is not reasonable particularly after such a massive drop after 6 days of losing. We go to a very Short TF and look for any evidence of breaking the resistance.
Action: Go to a Shorter TF and watch for any break of the resistance to go Long. This is a short term trade.
NZDJPY
It made a lower low by a few pips in compare with that Flash Crash. Like NZDCHF and NZDUSD it has a very bearish outlook on both Weekly and Monthly TFs. NZD is very bearish but both NZDUSD and NZDCHF have reached key supports on Daily TFs, however; NZDJPY even broke this support on the Daily TF. NZDJPY is a good candidate to go Short if we have weaker NZD in the coming week. This is because we cannot go long based on Daily TF as it has the old support currently acting a the new resistance. We should be looking for a visit to the resistance both on the Daily and 4hrs to go Short
Action: Look for the retest of the resistance on the 4hrs and Daily TFs to Short
NZDCAD
Like other NZD crosses it is very bearish both on Monthly and Weekly TFs. Interestingly on Daily TF it broke the support and revisited it again but this time as a resistance and on Friday in pulled back from it. It is a nice Shorting opportunity. Looking at hourly it is respecting the falling trend line.
Action: SELL
Australian Dollar
AUDUSD
This is pair that on Daily TF has reached a major support and selling into support is not reasonable. However on Monthly it is very bearish and in 2019 it made a break lower on Monthly TF and since early this year it has been trying to make a fresh Low. On weekly TF also this pair returned below the resistance last week. Short term we are bullish on AUDUSD until the daily Support taken away and then we will continue Shorting it.
Action: BUY
AUDCHF
This pair is very bearish on Weekly TF and on Monthly TF it has enough room to go lower. But on Daily it is getting close to the support. We cannot sell it at this situation as it is very close to the support and we cannot buy it too as it may go lower to complete the mission.
Action: Watch Daily TF to see when it reach the support then what for any bullish evidence on Shorter TF
AUDCAD
This is the most bearish AUD cross. Monthly TF broke the support last month and it is heading lower, Weekly is a beautifully heading lower with no support and Daily broke the support a few days ago. I would like to see a visit to the breakout area on Daily TF first to get into the Short side of this trade. On 4 Hrs TF also this pair is very close to the support. Considering that Daily Weighted Average AUD and 4hrs Weighted Average reached supports I prefer not to go Short any AUD pair this week.
Action: Watch 4 Hrs and Daily TFs for a correction or a visit to the breakout area on Daily TF to get into a Short trade.
AUDJPY
This pair is like GBPJPY on Monthly TFs as both just reached a major support but unlike GBPJPY, this pair is also getting very close to another support on Daily TF. Considering the fact that AUD Weighted average reached support on Daily and 4hrs TF, we will buy this pair at Open.
Action: BUY
AUDNZD
Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts also suggest a Short trade on this pair. On 15 min chart it has a beautiful wedge formation which we can use to execute trade.
Action: SELL
Note: This week there will be a lot of news for AUD and NZD but they will be all cleared by Tuesday evening ET time. If you are going to stay in the trade during the news make sure to have a tight SL to get stopped out if news was not in your favor.
EURO
EURCAD
On Monthly the same as EURJPY broke the support and on Weekly broke the support weeks ago. It has a hard time to visit the resistance and on 4 hrs it failed on Friday and made a false break higher. On hourly it respected the resistance and it is in a good spot to go short.
Action: SELL
EURNZD
Not a lot of info on this pair. Perhaps the main thing is the rejection on the last month candle as it bounced off the EMAs. On 4hrs also it broke the resistance hardly. If EURO become stronger in the coming week one of the best pairs to BUY is EURNZD
Action: a good candidate to BUY if EURO becomes stronger
EURAUD
EURAUD is almost similar to EURNZD. We only get into these two markets if EURO become stronger. EURAUD has a better bullish Monthly chart in terms of bouncing the last two candles off the EMAs.
Action: a good candidate to BUY if EURO becomes stronger
EURUSD
This is a great pair for shorting looking at the monthly chart. But had a hard time almost for a year on the Weekly chart to break the support and we are still on top of the support. On the daily it broke the support on Wednesday and by the end of the week it visited the breakout area again.
Looking at the USDOLLAR it looks bearish on the Daily TF hence bullish EURUSD. Overall this market can be on either side. Weighted average EURO is bearish and USDOLLAR is bearish too on Daily. In short term we may see a bounce first because of the Dollar situation. Most of the majors like AUDUSD and NZDUSD have reached major support on Daily TF which puts more pressure on EURUSD sellers to get out.
Action: Just wait for a bearish trap on 1hr and 4 hrs TFs to go Long (Short term)
EURGBP
On Weekly TF last week it broke the resistance. On Monthly TF it does not offer a good R:R to go long and we are looking for buyers failure on the way up. On Daily on Friday it could not make a fresh high. On 4 hrs it is still above EMAs and we cannot call it a sell until we see a close below them. On hourly it is 20 pips away from the Support. On 15 and 5 minutes it already made beautiful break of the lows but we should wait for the same break to 1 hr.
Action: We SELL it once it broke 1hr. SELL small size on my private account
EURJPY
Broke Monthly Support and on Weekly it has a lot of downside room. On daily it has reached support
Action: Wait for any failure on the way up on 4hrs and 1 hr TF
EURCHF
It has plenty of room on Monthly going down but on Weekly only 120 pips. On Daily it broke support hardly
Action: Wait on a visit to the support on Daily and Sell any failure on the way up on 4hrs and 1 hr TF
STERLING
GBPUSD
This market looks great on Monthly TF like EURUSD. But on weekly TF it is only about 150 pips away from the support. On 4hrs TF it is exhausted and may bounce. On 1hr and 15min both broke the resistance and considering what mentioned about USDOLLAR it is more likely to be bullish than bearish
Action: BUY for Short term
GBPCAD
On monthly TF it is exactly sitting on support and a bounce is expected. But on Weekly and Daily nothing is on the way going down. But recently on 4hrs TF it found some support and as it has been falling almost 1500 pips non-stop a bounce is expected and 4hrs TF exhausted on the bearish move. This can offer Long trade with 430 pips of profit based on 4hrs TF. The smoothest chart to look at is 10000 Volume chart.
Action: Wait for Shorter TF charts (1hr, 15 min and 5 min) to break the resistance or BUY any Sellers failure
GBPNZD
Perhaps the best Sterling good looking chart is GBPNZD Weekly. Last week’s candle bounced exactly at the support and made an inverted hammer. Clearly Buyers are in control based on the weekly chart and we will join, but we must see the breakout of the resistance at 4hrs chart as it is currently sitting exactly below the resistance. On 5 and 15 min it is falling.
Action: Set up a BUY order at the high at 1.8635
GBPAUD
This pair is not ready yet for trading. On weekly TF it behaved like GBPNZD as it made an inverted hammer but it does not bounce at a support to it can go lower. On daily also it cannot go higher very much as it is only about 100 pips away from the resistance and it has EMAs to break to go higher. On the way going down also it is not ready too. As mentioned on Weekly at bounced last week and on 4 hrs it is bearish. We have mixed signals.
Action: Study again
GBPJPY
This pair has just reached the Monthly support and obviously Selling is off the table. There is no support on other time frames nor resistance. A little info on this one pair.
Action: Look for Sellers failure on Shorter TF
GBPCHF
Similar to GBPUSD this pair is getting closer to the support. In fact this is closer to the support than GBPUSD on the Weekly TF with only 50 pips away from it. GBPCAD and GBPJPY also have reached Monthly Supports and GBPNZD has reached weekly support and bounced with an inverted hammer on Weekly.
Action: Look for Sellers failure on Shorter TF and BUY
Canadian Dollar
USDCAD
On weekly TF this pair broke a key support in June and since then it has been trying to visit the resistance. The question is whether it can reach the breakout area or not. On a shorter TF this correction (Bullish) move exhausted and so far it has failed to break the resistance. On the Daily TF also on Friday it made a shooting star. On other shorter TFs also it made a break to the lows.
Action: SELL
CADCHF
This pair has mixed signals. On Weekly TF it is getting closer to the support. But on Daily and 4hrs TFs it has enough room to go lower. Weighted average (2nd) has reached a major support too.
Action: Review it again. It is more likely to be bullish
CADJPY
This pair is bearish in any TF. On Daily TF it made big bearish moves and we should wait for a correction on a Shorter TF.
Action: Wait for any correction and Sell any buyers failure
Swiss Franc
CHFJPY
This pair is very bearish on any TF. On Monthly it is bellow EMAs and has enough room going lower. On Weekly TF also it is below EMAs and has enough downside room. But On Daily on Thursday it broke the support and on Friday it tried to reach the broken point. We are looking for any failure to Sell it.
Action: Sell any buyers failure
US OIL
On Monthly TF it is Below EMAs and on Weekly it made a bearish engulfing last week. On the daily TF Thursday this market made a biggest move lower since 2015. On Daily pulled back from the resistance and broke EMAs on Thursday and Friday it tried to reach them again. On 4hrs TF it got very close to the resistance and on 15 min and 5000 Volume charts broke the support.
Action: SELL
GOLD
Gold broke the Weekly resistance beautifully and currently sitting above the resistance with a nice bullish candle. As we are bearish on USDOLLAR in short term, we expect Gold to be bullish in short term. On Daily TF on Thursday it bounced off the EMAs and unlike OIL it made a bullish engulfing. The going on Shorter TF it pulled back again into the support again and it is very likely to make a fresh high. On daily it has enough room to go higher before it gets to the resistance.
Action: BUY
USDOLLAR
On Monthly TF, it made a fresh high since March 2017 with a very nice bullish candle bouncing off the EMAs. On the Weekly TF also it returned into the wedge formation created since Nov 2017. But toward the end of the last week Sellers got in the market and defeated buyers with a candle with a long wick and small body. On Daily TF it reached very close to the Support on Wed and reversed on Thu and Fri. We expect the bearish move on Daily TF to continue at least to the EMAs until we find further clarification on EURUSD. The last 4hrs Candle broke the EMAs on Friday and on 15 and 1hr TFs it broke supports.
Action: Watch this market carefully to find the best spot to Exit USD crosses.
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Regards,
KHAN