JamesRkaye

Long Term Market Cycle Update: BUY!

Long
DJCFD:DJI   Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
The and exit for this strategy was spot on at predicting the recent fall, we are now reaching close to the levels of the crash at the start of 2018. According to the cycle the market should reverse before breaking the previous low. Look at past charts of this cycle for more information.

Comments

This is a solid chart. Thanks.
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Excellent stuff. Well presented. Thanks for sharing your fine work. Just last night I was looking and documentaries on the 1929 Crash on YouTube. In summary as the boom years flowed past 1970 the controls fell away. The smashing of the Gold Standard was/is the most monumental fudge in history - and madly the whole world fed on it. I don't think any body really understands how air-inflated the markets truly are. I certainly don't know. History will teach us.

Nobody or 'everybody' is probably thinking 1929 can't happen again because we're so Uber fail-safed these days. The reality is that there is a debt crisis that has been growing and now it's like a bomb about to explode! The long drop could well be sharper than your yellow path in yellow. This metaphorical debt bomb is likely to be more powerful than in 1929, for the simple reason that the whole world is now linked up so 'electronically'. So things like flash crashes are still probable though the financial gurus out there say that there are methods to halt it. I don't believe in gurus.

I'm short in good equity positions that are much better than no-loss, and with ridiculous limit orders just in case a flash crash happens. I'm trailing anyway, so the limit orders are 'just in case'.
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JamesRkaye Captain_Walker
@Captain_Walker, Hi, thanks for your interesting comment. I agree that this debt experiment could end very badly, and the tightening of interest rates after they have been so low for so long does worry me. I would be very careful shorting equities to profit out of this though! As Keynes said "markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent". Nowadays there are a range of derivative products which can allow you to profit more and risk less from a short trade. I would recommend you look at inverse ETFs which gain value as the market drops, however these can suffer from beta slippage over long periods of time.

The way I would plan to profit from a market crash would be by making a spread bet on the VIX volatility index, which many trading platforms have recently allowed. The value of the VIX is quoted in percentage points based on expected volatility in the next year, derived from the price of S&P options. So if you were able buy the Vix at about 8 during a stable uptrend, you could sit on it and wait as long as it takes for your "flash crash" where the vix could reach 80, giving you a 1000% profit, and the vix will never go below 0. Maybe look into these alternatives to shorting equities as you may be forced out of your positions if they hit your stop loss.

Thanks for the kind words!
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Captain_Walker JamesRkaye
@JamesRkaye, I'm on 4H and 6H time frames, when 'everybody' else is waiting on the long drop on the daily, which may not happen for some time. The markets can be as irrational as they want. All I know is that I control my losses and gains. So respect to Keynes but I certainly won't allow market psychosis to rule my positions.

There's a nice bull run on at the moment between 16:30 and 18:30PM UK time. I find this better than watching Netflix! LOL. The bull run is conspicuously led by Tech stocks. Recent falls in some of the FAANGS have got greed going. We shall have to wait and see as Mr Trump often says. :)
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JamesRkaye Captain_Walker
@Captain_Walker, Okay if you are good at timing good luck! I would just look into trading the VIX as there would be huge gains to be made during a crash, especially if you can time it right. A short trade will never make more profit than your exposure.

I'm currently long tech stocks, I believe they will lead the rally and lead the crash. Good luck :)
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Captain_Walker JamesRkaye
@JamesRkaye, Nice. 'The Capt' doesn't time luck or require it. Interesting read I came across on luck https://goo.gl/u1PctY
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Please could you comment on my latest chart? It's also about cycles:
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