DOW30 CAN TEST 2016 Q1 LOWS IN AN UNPRECEDENTED -30% DRAWDOWN
THE DOW JONES TRENDLINE HAS SEEN PRECISE IMPORTANT DRAWDOWN CORRECTIONS, THAT SILENTLY OFF THE BULLS EYES, HAVE SIGNED A PRECISE PATH
THAT HAS SIGNED THREE TIMES, THREE MAJOR LOWER LOWS, Q1 2018, Q4 2018, Q1 2020, WITH PERFECT SYNCHRONY TRACING ALSO THE ICHIMOKU LAGGING SPAN.
IN EVERY INSTANCE OF TIME THE DOW30 HAS TESTED MAJOR LOWER LOWS, WHERE THE Q1 2020 HAS COMPLETELY BROKEN DOWN THE LIGHT VOLUME UPTREND AROUND THE DOW30 25000 POINTS AREA.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE, THE LAGGING SPAN FUNCTION AS AN IMPORTANT FORWARD INDICATOR AND AS WE CAN NOTICE THE LAGGING SPAN, HAS RECENTLY MADE A DOUBLE TOP REVERSAL AGAINST THE ICHIMOKU SENKOU A/B,
MEANWHILE THE PAST WEEK HAS SEEN STRONG SELL SIDE ACTION, THAT SIGNAL A CLOSING BELOW THE KIJUN LINE AND BELOW THE 200WEEKS MOVING AVERAGE, WITH THE TENKAN LINE FIRMLY TO THE DOWNSIDE.
WE HAVE REASONS TO AFFIRM THAT THE THE DOW JONES MARKET STRUCTURE HAS BEEN QUITE SERIOUSLY COMPROMISED FOR THE MEDIUM TO LONGER TERM AND THAT THE WHOLE MARKET STRUCTURE,
DOW JONES 24500/25000 STRUCTURING UP TO THE DOW30 29500 HIGHS WILL NOT BE REACHED FOR SOMETIME, AS THE DOW JONES UPSIDE CAN BE CAPPED TO DOW30 26740 , Q1/Q4 2018 HIGHS.
FROM A MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE, UNITED STATES STOCK MARKET HAS UNRAVELLED ONLY AFTER TWO YEARS OF THE 45TH PRESIDENT ADMINISTRATION, UNDER THE UNSUSTAINABLE WEIGHT OF EVER EXPANDING FEDERAL FISCAL DEFICIT AND BALANCE OF TRADE DEFICIT, WITH THE LATTER BEING A STRUCTURAL FACTOR OF THE UNITED STATES ECONOMY, THAT OTHERWISE NEEDS TO ATTRACTS FINANCIAL AND CAPITAL INFLOWS FAR LARGER THAN THE BALANCE OF TRADE DEFICIT, JUST TO FINANCE THE FISCAL DEFICIT AND STOCK MARKET.
GIVEN THE CURRENT FISCAL DEFICIT PATH, AND MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS OF AN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SET OF CIRCUMSTANCES THAT WILL AFFECT AND IN SOME MEASURE CONSTRAINT GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTPUT,
STOCK MARKET AND EQUITIES, IN PARTICULAR, ARE IN FOR MUCH PRONOUNCED DISCOUNT IN STOCK PRICES VALUATIONS, PROFIT AND EARNINGS PROJECTIONS, MEANWHILE ANOTHER LARGE CHUNK OF THE ECONOMY WILL HAVE TO STRUGGLE WITH INSOLVENCY AND OUTRIGHT BANKRUPTCY, THESE ARE ALL DYNAMICS THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE WILL FIND DIFFICULT TO DEAL WITH, AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND CENTRAL BANKS GLOBALLY WILL HAVE TO ALLOW BUSINESSES TO FILE FOR FORECLOSURE ONCE HAS BEEN DETERMINED THE STATE OF INSOLVENCY. THE NATURAL CONSEQUENCES IN ANY DEBT/BUSINESS CYCLE, WHERE THE FRACTIONAL CREATION OF CREDIT FOR BUSINESSES LEAVES THE WHOLE MONETARY SYSTEM VULNERABLE TO LIQUIDITY AND SOLVENCY SHOCKS, ENDOGENOUS AND EXOGENOUS AS IN THIS PARTICULAR INSTANCE.
THE PANDEMIC CRISIS CAN BE DEFINED AS AN EXOGENOUS MAN-MADE FACTOR BEING THE DETERMINANT(DELTA FACTOR) DISRUPTION IN AN HIGH DEBT HIGH LEVERAGE GLOBAL ECONOMY, THE INSTRINSIC FRAGILITY OF THE ECONOMIC SYSTEM ALREADY IN A LATE CYCLE EXPANSION, WHERE LIQUIDITY AND CREDIT WERE ALREADY DRYING UP AND WHILE ECONOMIES HAVE REGISTERED LACKLUSTER IF NOT STAGNATION OF ECONOMIC GROWTH ALREADY FOR ALL 2019, WHILE APPEARED CLEAR THAT SPECULATION TRIED TO PUSH HIGHER EQUITIES PRICES AND DIVIDENDS SO TO EXTRACT THE LAST LUMP DIVIDEND PAYMENT BEFORE THE STOCK MARKET WOULD UNRAVEL.
NEXT TRADING WEEK HAS ALL THE TECHNICAL INDICATORS THAT A SUBSATNCIAL CORRECTION WILL GET THROUGH, POSSIBLE TO EXPECT THE DOW30 TO SEARCH TO THE DOWNSIDE THE TENKAN LINE SUPPORT AREA
DOW30 21500/21000. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE DOW JONES WILL COMPLETE THE PATTERN GOING TO TEST THE Q1 LOWS, HOWEVER WITH A STRONG TECHNICAL POSSIBILITY TO MAKE NEW LOWS, FOLLOWING THE DIAGONAL TRENDLINE.
IN THIS INSTANCE COMPLETING THE PATTERN OF TESTING THE LOWS ONCE MORE, WILL ACTIVATE EVEN STRONGER SELL SIGNAL. IN FACT THIS WILL BE THE FOURTH TIME THE DOW JONES30 TRENDLINE GOES TO TEST THE
DIAGONAL SUPPORT LINE THAT DOTS TOGETHER, Q1 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2020 MAJOR LOWER LOWS. THE FOURTH TIME MAKING A LOWER LOW BRINGS THE HIGHLY LIKELY POTENTIAL THAT THE MARKET BREAKS THE SUPPORT,
AS STRONG SELL SIGNAL GETS ACTIVATED, TO SEARCH THE IMMEDIATE MAJOR LOW Q1 2016, THAT WOULD BECOME THE MARKET SEGMENT OF SUPPORT.
DOW 16000 A -30% TECHNICAL CORRECTION FROM LAST WEEK CLOSING POINT
(stock markets are evolving stock and flows dynamics, only offering a technical chart, based on data available, not a certainty)
THAT HAS SIGNED THREE TIMES, THREE MAJOR LOWER LOWS, Q1 2018, Q4 2018, Q1 2020, WITH PERFECT SYNCHRONY TRACING ALSO THE ICHIMOKU LAGGING SPAN.
IN EVERY INSTANCE OF TIME THE DOW30 HAS TESTED MAJOR LOWER LOWS, WHERE THE Q1 2020 HAS COMPLETELY BROKEN DOWN THE LIGHT VOLUME UPTREND AROUND THE DOW30 25000 POINTS AREA.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE, THE LAGGING SPAN FUNCTION AS AN IMPORTANT FORWARD INDICATOR AND AS WE CAN NOTICE THE LAGGING SPAN, HAS RECENTLY MADE A DOUBLE TOP REVERSAL AGAINST THE ICHIMOKU SENKOU A/B,
MEANWHILE THE PAST WEEK HAS SEEN STRONG SELL SIDE ACTION, THAT SIGNAL A CLOSING BELOW THE KIJUN LINE AND BELOW THE 200WEEKS MOVING AVERAGE, WITH THE TENKAN LINE FIRMLY TO THE DOWNSIDE.
WE HAVE REASONS TO AFFIRM THAT THE THE DOW JONES MARKET STRUCTURE HAS BEEN QUITE SERIOUSLY COMPROMISED FOR THE MEDIUM TO LONGER TERM AND THAT THE WHOLE MARKET STRUCTURE,
DOW JONES 24500/25000 STRUCTURING UP TO THE DOW30 29500 HIGHS WILL NOT BE REACHED FOR SOMETIME, AS THE DOW JONES UPSIDE CAN BE CAPPED TO DOW30 26740 , Q1/Q4 2018 HIGHS.
FROM A MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE, UNITED STATES STOCK MARKET HAS UNRAVELLED ONLY AFTER TWO YEARS OF THE 45TH PRESIDENT ADMINISTRATION, UNDER THE UNSUSTAINABLE WEIGHT OF EVER EXPANDING FEDERAL FISCAL DEFICIT AND BALANCE OF TRADE DEFICIT, WITH THE LATTER BEING A STRUCTURAL FACTOR OF THE UNITED STATES ECONOMY, THAT OTHERWISE NEEDS TO ATTRACTS FINANCIAL AND CAPITAL INFLOWS FAR LARGER THAN THE BALANCE OF TRADE DEFICIT, JUST TO FINANCE THE FISCAL DEFICIT AND STOCK MARKET.
GIVEN THE CURRENT FISCAL DEFICIT PATH, AND MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS OF AN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SET OF CIRCUMSTANCES THAT WILL AFFECT AND IN SOME MEASURE CONSTRAINT GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTPUT,
STOCK MARKET AND EQUITIES, IN PARTICULAR, ARE IN FOR MUCH PRONOUNCED DISCOUNT IN STOCK PRICES VALUATIONS, PROFIT AND EARNINGS PROJECTIONS, MEANWHILE ANOTHER LARGE CHUNK OF THE ECONOMY WILL HAVE TO STRUGGLE WITH INSOLVENCY AND OUTRIGHT BANKRUPTCY, THESE ARE ALL DYNAMICS THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE WILL FIND DIFFICULT TO DEAL WITH, AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND CENTRAL BANKS GLOBALLY WILL HAVE TO ALLOW BUSINESSES TO FILE FOR FORECLOSURE ONCE HAS BEEN DETERMINED THE STATE OF INSOLVENCY. THE NATURAL CONSEQUENCES IN ANY DEBT/BUSINESS CYCLE, WHERE THE FRACTIONAL CREATION OF CREDIT FOR BUSINESSES LEAVES THE WHOLE MONETARY SYSTEM VULNERABLE TO LIQUIDITY AND SOLVENCY SHOCKS, ENDOGENOUS AND EXOGENOUS AS IN THIS PARTICULAR INSTANCE.
THE PANDEMIC CRISIS CAN BE DEFINED AS AN EXOGENOUS MAN-MADE FACTOR BEING THE DETERMINANT(DELTA FACTOR) DISRUPTION IN AN HIGH DEBT HIGH LEVERAGE GLOBAL ECONOMY, THE INSTRINSIC FRAGILITY OF THE ECONOMIC SYSTEM ALREADY IN A LATE CYCLE EXPANSION, WHERE LIQUIDITY AND CREDIT WERE ALREADY DRYING UP AND WHILE ECONOMIES HAVE REGISTERED LACKLUSTER IF NOT STAGNATION OF ECONOMIC GROWTH ALREADY FOR ALL 2019, WHILE APPEARED CLEAR THAT SPECULATION TRIED TO PUSH HIGHER EQUITIES PRICES AND DIVIDENDS SO TO EXTRACT THE LAST LUMP DIVIDEND PAYMENT BEFORE THE STOCK MARKET WOULD UNRAVEL.
NEXT TRADING WEEK HAS ALL THE TECHNICAL INDICATORS THAT A SUBSATNCIAL CORRECTION WILL GET THROUGH, POSSIBLE TO EXPECT THE DOW30 TO SEARCH TO THE DOWNSIDE THE TENKAN LINE SUPPORT AREA
DOW30 21500/21000. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE DOW JONES WILL COMPLETE THE PATTERN GOING TO TEST THE Q1 LOWS, HOWEVER WITH A STRONG TECHNICAL POSSIBILITY TO MAKE NEW LOWS, FOLLOWING THE DIAGONAL TRENDLINE.
IN THIS INSTANCE COMPLETING THE PATTERN OF TESTING THE LOWS ONCE MORE, WILL ACTIVATE EVEN STRONGER SELL SIGNAL. IN FACT THIS WILL BE THE FOURTH TIME THE DOW JONES30 TRENDLINE GOES TO TEST THE
DIAGONAL SUPPORT LINE THAT DOTS TOGETHER, Q1 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2020 MAJOR LOWER LOWS. THE FOURTH TIME MAKING A LOWER LOW BRINGS THE HIGHLY LIKELY POTENTIAL THAT THE MARKET BREAKS THE SUPPORT,
AS STRONG SELL SIGNAL GETS ACTIVATED, TO SEARCH THE IMMEDIATE MAJOR LOW Q1 2016, THAT WOULD BECOME THE MARKET SEGMENT OF SUPPORT.
DOW 16000 A -30% TECHNICAL CORRECTION FROM LAST WEEK CLOSING POINT
(stock markets are evolving stock and flows dynamics, only offering a technical chart, based on data available, not a certainty)