madspain

DOW JOnes relief rally - before next leg down

DJ:DJI   Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
End of year buying and oversold conditions contributing to a long awaited bounce - but where does it get to?


DOW daily chart



Pretty much self explanatory

But some key levels:
Bounce target = previous support 24236 - which coincidentally is the 61.8 % Fibonacci retrace of the downtrend from 3/12/18.
Possible medium term scenario: (very rough !)



1 rally to around 24236
then next leg down to new low (20k)
that should complete 5 waves down for larger wave I



2 Then a rally correcting that 5 waves -
if the 5 waves down starts at 26200 and ends near 20k = 6200 points then :
62 % retrace = 23844
78 % retrace = 24830 - if this is wave II up can often retrace a large percentage of wave I - this is where Joe Public believes that the bull market has resumed

3 Then the next decline wave III - this will be the longest

Time frame? after new low - rally into the spring - with the fall starting in summer
This will indicate if the correction is of 2016 bull trend, 2008 bull trend or even larger 1980 bull trend (worst case)
Other markets - DAX and FTSE still on target for 10k- 10220 and 6300 respectively

Comment: Rally has been strong - BUT next week will tell...new up trend or break down from rising wedge and new lows..
Well the last significant bear move was 2008.

Dow chart from 2008
1. can see the initial fall from the topping pattern was about 18% (2018 - 20%)
2. Rally from that first low was 12% (2019 -12%)

3. Market then fell 18% and made a lower low -
4 Market rallied 9 % (weaker)
5 Finally 27 % fall
6 small rally
7 final fall and capitulation
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3WWzOudAFTM/X...
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