DOW JOnes relief rally - before next leg down
End of year buying and oversold conditions contributing to a long awaited bounce - but where does it get to?
DOW daily chart
Pretty much self explanatory
But some key levels:
Bounce target = previous support 24236 - which coincidentally is the 61.8 % Fibonacci retrace of the downtrend from 3/12/18.
Possible medium term scenario: (very rough !)
1 rally to around 24236
then next leg down to new low (20k)
that should complete 5 waves down for larger wave I
2 Then a rally correcting that 5 waves -
if the 5 waves down starts at 26200 and ends near 20k = 6200 points then :
62 % retrace = 23844
78 % retrace = 24830 - if this is wave II up can often retrace a large percentage of wave I - this is where Joe Public believes that the bull market has resumed
3 Then the next decline wave III - this will be the longest
Time frame? after new low - rally into the spring - with the fall starting in summer
This will indicate if the correction is of 2016 bull trend, 2008 bull trend or even larger 1980 bull trend (worst case)
Other markets - DAX and FTSE still on target for 10k- 10220 and 6300 respectively
DOW daily chart
Pretty much self explanatory
But some key levels:
Bounce target = previous support 24236 - which coincidentally is the 61.8 % Fibonacci retrace of the downtrend from 3/12/18.
Possible medium term scenario: (very rough !)
1 rally to around 24236
then next leg down to new low (20k)
that should complete 5 waves down for larger wave I
2 Then a rally correcting that 5 waves -
if the 5 waves down starts at 26200 and ends near 20k = 6200 points then :
62 % retrace = 23844
78 % retrace = 24830 - if this is wave II up can often retrace a large percentage of wave I - this is where Joe Public believes that the bull market has resumed
3 Then the next decline wave III - this will be the longest
Time frame? after new low - rally into the spring - with the fall starting in summer
This will indicate if the correction is of 2016 bull trend, 2008 bull trend or even larger 1980 bull trend (worst case)
Other markets - DAX and FTSE still on target for 10k- 10220 and 6300 respectively
Well the last significant bear move was 2008.
Dow chart from 2008
1. can see the initial fall from the topping pattern was about 18% (2018 - 20%)
2. Rally from that first low was 12% (2019 -12%)
3. Market then fell 18% and made a lower low -
4 Market rallied 9 % (weaker)
5 Finally 27 % fall
6 small rally
7 final fall and capitulation
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