Bearish H&S Pattern DAX

TVC:DEU30   DAX Index
Bearish H&S Pattern DAX

Although the current bearish H&S pattern on DAX is not
symmetrical i.e. the right shoulder is higher than the left
shoulder, however, it still is indicative of a bearish correction
to take place; also, this unsymmetrical setup does form a
megaphone setup if you draw trend lines extending from the
right to left shoulder and from the low at 11'868.84 to the
lower low at 11'726.62. (I didn't include the megaphone
depiction on the chart because it would become too messy)

Although price has been ranging for a while now, it does
seem as if the range is tightening i.e. the top of the range
is gradually being pulled lower. Right now the range is
between the ATH of 2015 at 12'390.75 and the low of
2018 at 11'726.62.

Thus, it looks more and more that a bigger retracement
is coming. Evidence supporting that claim are: price
closed below the 100SMA for a second week in a row, the
RSI is still below it's bearish trend line and price has
remained below the 3% breakout level after it closed
below the 2 year support trend line on Aug 6, 2018.

Looking at the RSI , it seems as though it will test the down
trend line one more time, contact I presume will be at
around the 46-47 level, which was the low of Aug 20, 2018
at 12'245.56. The latter price is significant because it is
almost exactly at the 3% breakout level.

A short opportunity would present itself if price were to
get rejected at the 12.237/45 level, and the RSI has not
broken the down trend line . Short entries could be made
with a close below 12'120.65 (low of Aug 13) with stops
above 12'240. Target would be between 11'278/20, which
is the 1.272 Fibonacci extension level and the measured
target objective of the impulse leg AB from the retracement
high at 13'204.31.

A close above 12'616 could potentially send price to the
12'840 levels, and then it would be very likely that price
would go and reach beyond the high's at 13.596.89, but
we will simply have to be patient and wait and see. Also
don't forget that starting this week till Oct 14, 2018 the
Bavarian elections will be running, thus, causing volatility
in the DAX .

Happy trading


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