Lari_Pen

LONG BTC: incoming bullish pattern ? It seems so...

Long
BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
On the 4h chart, in the last 24h the price kept ranging from $31,100.67 to $32,020.00, with a decrease of 0.43%. The relatively low volatility of the last days indicate we are currently in an accumulation period.

In the last 24h the price kept hitting the lower band of the Keltner channel, but not the upper, as the EMA acted as a resistance, therefore when the price does finally reach the upper band it could be a signal that the downtrend is near an end. Bitmex index shows negative funding rates since May 2021, this suggesting also an incoming reversal bullish pattern as, typically, negative funding means shorts pay long and this leads to bullish price movements.

After long period of negative rates the price always had a movement to the upside, however, the index cannot predict when this will happen, therefore for having an approximate picture of indicate potential areas of importance related to time, I use Fibonacci time zones indicator. This acted pretty accurately in predicting historical areas where a swing high, low, or reversal occurred, therefore the 55 vertical line just crossed may indicate the end of the bearish pattern . A third indicator pointing to an incoming price rise is the RSI index, which was close to 30 when the price hit the lower band of the Keltner channel, suggesting the asset was overbought, therefore a price rise can be predicted. It seems that the trend is approaching the end of a descending tringle, with strong support at 31k area, so a breakout is expected. However, even if descending triangles usually indicate bearish patterns, in this case given all the others indicators I expect a breakout to the upside, therefore this could be a good entry point for long position. In order to understand entry price and targets for swing trading I take a look at the daily chart .


On the daily chart we can see now the price finds strong support at 31.900$ level and ranges between the support and the EMA of the Keltner channel which acts as a resistance.

On this time frame, the price hasn’t hit the lower band of the channel yet therefore I expect a continuation pattern to the downside, as indicated by the angle of the channel, up to when the price hits the level of two times the ATR below the EMA . After, I expect a breakout to the upside.

TRADE POSITION: LONG

ENTRY PRICE: $30.140 for a lower risk trade wait for the confirmations:
MACD crossover (not yet)
RSI <30 (not yet, at the time of writing on the daily chart is at 38: the asset is almost overbought)
• High Volume in-flows (not yet)

TARGET I: $33.500
TARGET II €36.600
TARGET III: $40.400

STOPLOSS: $ 28.500
Trade active: Last day's #BTC / #USDtether signal is playout out perfectly!

As expected #BTC price tested 30k level, our entry price, and now seems approaching a #bullish reversal up to 40k.
#Fibo time zone indicator estimates this can be expected in approximately 1 month.


Even if in the long run our expectations are bullish, an immediate opportunity has been spotted! #daily or #swing traders may partially disinvest from the long position & go #short !

ENTRY PRICE: $ 32.700
TARGET: $ 30.100
STOPLOSS: $33.500

Historically, whenever the price had a rally from the bottom of the keltner channel to the upside, an immediate pullback occured right under EMA level.

RSI index is almost overbought and the downtrend black line historically acted as strong resistance (yellow circles).
Trade active: Bitcoin's price today is at $38k level, with a 24-hour price decrese of -1.84%.

As predicted, price is headed to test 40k resistance level, with already 4 out of 5 targets reached since the LONG signal. MACD crossover, indicating a strong bullish pattern. Traders who have bought at the stated entry price could benefit 31% gains!

Even if in the long run my expectations are bullish, an immediate opportunity has been spotted! Daily or swing traders may partially disinvest from the long position & go short !

ENTRY PRICE: > $ 38 k
TARGET: $34k / 33k / 32 k
STOPLOSS: $39.4k


Historically, whenever the price had a rally from the bottom of the keltner channel to the upside, an immediate pullback occured to the lower side of the channel.

RSI index is strongly overbought and there has been already a volume cofirmation, all those being signs of a possible pullback up to 32k area.

I expect the asset to consolidate then in 32k - 36k range, before going up to 40k in mid August as predicted.

Comments

Lari_Pen joujou-1
@joujou-1, many thanks !
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Lari_Pen Ryecatcher
@Ryecatcher, let's now see when we'll reach again 40k, just a matter of time!
#hodl
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