pasojov

BTCUSDT - Rising wedge formed (daily analysis)

Short
BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
Institutional/smart money/whales/big spenders move the market. They are the ones with the capital to take out a lot of pending orders. The most small guys can do is hope to not stand in front of them.

See 22nd Jan this year. Volume was 143k bitcoin traded this day just on Binance. Price was around 31k, which means that $4,433,000,000 was traded on this day. $4.4 billion was transacted globally through Binance in just one day.

My point here is that since the 17th, the IRS has sent out $242 billion in stimulus checks. Yet price hasn't moved that much. All of these 'analysts' saying that stimulus checks will propel BTC to new heights are forgetting that most traders are at the mercy of whales and hedge funds. The big players know that taking money from people when they're in pain (like forcing new greedy entrants to sell at a loss) is the easiest way that they can propel the market in the direction they want. Above all, you have to be pretty dumb (or a daytrader😉) to dump all of your helicopter money in a highly volatile market.

TL;DR:
Johnny and his $1400 stimulus check won't move the market. 25 million Johnny's and their $1400 stimulus checks might move the market a bit, but the big boys will look to exploit these new entrants by pushing price down hard and letting the cascading liquidation/market sells and capitulation do the rest. Combine that with rising yields, a short-term rising dollar and other scares in the traditional markets, we now have a recipe for a substantial correction.

Technically speaking, BTC to me looks like dogshit. I'll start with the overall pattern.

A rising wedge has formed while volume toward the apex is dropping (see monthly average of volume ). Price is spending much more time around the bottom line, implying it's a weak support. Conversely, the upper line has provoked much stronger moves away, a sign of strong resistance.

The break above the weekly (orange line) in a strongly bullish scenario would come back to restest the level, then move cleanly away (see the retest of the 0.5 level). This hasn't; price has moved in and out of the level while mildly respecting it (see the last 3 candles). This indicates buying support is waning.

RSI has confirmed the bearish divergence with 3 touches to the trendline.

What I'm going to be looking for over the coming week is weakness above the last high at $61.4k~. Specifically, I'd like to see a break that gets rejected within 1 or 2 days before closing back below the high at $61.4k. I'd look for price to top out at $62-65k, which supports my previous BTCUSDT idea of a top in this area (link below).

Potential setup:
Entry: $63400
SL: $68200
TP: $41k

Let me know what you think below. Happy trading:)

ps. if this appeals to your way of trading, follow me for more
Comment: Wedge broken, let's goooooooooooooo

Comments

this is what I feel you stole my words sir,D/W/M bearish divergence,with less volumes,59kshorted,waiting 62or63k,for another batch to short,stop loss is 67k,all the target of mine is 42500,43ks,atleast there is someone who is looking at the bigger picture
+1 Reply
pasojov Mukudatwani
@Mukudatwani, looks like we're on the same wavelength!
Reply
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