BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Looking at the 20, 50 and 200 EMAs on the daily. Whenever the 20 EMA squeezes the 50 EMA or dips just below (1), we get a move towards or to the 200 EMA (2) followed by a move upwards (3).
From a pure technical analysis point of view the observations are correct and the evidence on the chart is unarguable.

However, the markets are not ruled by technicals (not that anybody implied they were). There is a reality to markets. Technical analysis is a fairly reliable way of projecting on price movements based on historical data. It is always limited, as it cannot see into the future.

Nonetheless Bitcoin is subject to real-world developments that are likely to impact in a future that hasn't been written as yet. There is a pattern throughout history, that prototypes rarely survive and prosper. BTC is a prototype. BTC was never designed as a business to face competition in the real world. It was simply an idea for people to exchange whatever value they put into it. It was then challenged to evolve. Well, not exactly. BTC is derived from a mathematical equation. By 'evolve' I mean that its blockchain was challenged.

In tight summary, there were numerous problems to emerge with the way the BTC blockchain coped or not with ever increasing pressures. Some will have seen several hard forks and new variants of BTC (like BCD). Then there was development of the lightning network in an attempt to solve bottlenecks and speed of processing etc. (I shan't go into all measures to remedy BTC).

In the meantime a bunch of 'new kids' arrived on the block - some 2000 of them at this time. These were more designed as businesses and for businesses. They capitalised and learned from mistakes made by 'grandpa'. So - in effect they are thousands of times faster, more efficient and cheaper with transactions. Some are actually free. Then came tokens which are not coins. In this post, if I say alts I mean cryptos and tokens (which I know may not be entirely correct).

The alts are providing real-world solutions and utility in a way that challenges the prototype. In other words the competition is here and it ain't going away any time soon. This is a dynamic and rapidly evolving landscape. This sort of landscape has been seen with nearly every major invention. Prototypes are eventually retired. This does not mean that markets to not hang on to them for quite some time.

The true value of any alt lies in its utility, efficiency and what the blockchain in which it lives actually does. Some will have seen that blockchains are in development to manage airline matters, vehicle-related transactions, protection of rights for digital assets, music distribution etc etc (the list goes on). The vast wisdom behind Ethereum probably explains why its path departed from that of BTC several weeks ago. I'm not predicting that ETH is gonna be big. My point is that utility and strategic development are real world issues where there is heated competition.

Importantly I separate two kinds of mindsets: 1) traders 2) investors. Investors buy or sell and hold their positions for much longer than traders. Investors are more concerned with 'fundamentals'. I take no one position.

As a trader, I'm happy to follow my technical analyses of BTC in my trading. But with an investor's mindset I am also willing to take a position and hold. I can do both. There is no law saying that a person must be 'a trader' and is excluded from being an investor.

With my investor's mindset riding in tandem and based on what I said above about patterns in history (entirely evidence-based), I expect BTC to fall quite significantly over the next two years from it's all time high.
That's a very interesting observation, thank you for publishing it. Do you think the correction towards the 200 EMA is complete or a double bottom is required? A couple of questions on your chart; what do the '1,2,3' signify and what did you use to draw your fib chart? The fib chart tool i use draws multi-coloured banded fib levels, which are great but can make the chart a bit overwhelming to look at.
jawpilot23 tigerpause
@tigerpause, I would say a double bottom is not unlikely. Just had a death cross on the 4 hour and sat in the Ichi cloud on daily. My guess would be sideways in the 9-16k region with a lot of fakeouts/breakdowns to frustrate new traders for a few months before making new ATHs. @CarpeNoctom on Twitter has written a thorough article on bitcoin price movement (posted before and predicted the most recent and vicious dip):
tigerpause jawpilot23
@jawpilot23, thanks very much for your reply. That article in unbelievably comprehensive - incredible work @CarpeNoctom! I haven't used Ichi cloud so i'll get onto that. I googled death cross but drew a blank, what is that?
jawpilot23 tigerpause
@tigerpause, Yeah his writing is great in general, periodically analyses bitcoin as well as other coins. Death cross is 50 EMA crossing down through 200 EMA. Golden cross is 50 EMA crossing up through 200 EMA. Considered strong bear/bull signs I believe.
tigerpause jawpilot23
@jawpilot23, Got ya! I've added the 50 and 200 EMAs to my chart thanks to you
jawpilot23 tigerpause
@tigerpause, Excellent news 😁
jawpilot23 tigerpause
@tigerpause, 1/ 20 EMA squeezing 50 EMA or dipping below; 2/ move towards or to 200 EMA; 3/ move upwards to new ATHs.

I use the standard fib tool but remove background and colours. Glad you found the chart useful!
tigerpause jawpilot23
@jawpilot23, 123 - got it...and now re-reading your post i realise that that was a very stupid question! I need to slow down my reading/get smarter :)

Fib tool - EXCELLENT! I shall do the same so that my charts look a little less disco.
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