Bitcoin is currently bouncing back to the $4,500 area, at which point big money bottom accumulators, who were taken by surprise by the recent aggressive dumps, will proceed to exit their positions by selling Bitcoin as well as other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum .
This will create a blatantly visible on the daily and weekly. Bitcoin's price will then proceed to decline by around 80% over the next year or so, powered by profit-taking, miner dumps, government crackdowns, exchange closures, and panic selling by hundreds of thousands of schmucks who bought in at the top of the bubble. My target is $999 or lower by the end of next year.
I've been in bitcoin since 2012. It's been an incredible ride. But at this point, there's nothing powering price anymore beyond the expectation of higher prices by junk/dumb money speculators. This fundamentally defines the top of a speculative bubble.
This is the exact same market sentiment that was around during the 2013 run-up from $100 to $1200 and subsequent bubble pop. It was simply impossible for many market players to imagine that Bitcoin prices would plummet. This is a severe psychological limitation that's especially pronounced in the cryptocurrency markets.
Greed is rampant and big money is out to profit as much as possible on the backs of the endless new, dumb money coming in. Just a couple of weeks ago, a Russian grandmother ("babushka"), a distant relative, called my people looking to invest her life savings into digital currencies. She has no information about bitcoin beyond the fact that she'd heard prices were going up and that it was an easy way to make more fiat.
C-list US celebrities are also jumping on the bandwagon. Floyd Mayweather, Paris Hilton , and Kevin Hart are just a few of the folks who recently sought to promote worthless ICOs and cryptocurrencies to their social media followers.
Ray Dalio, head of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund with $150B AUM , recently expressed his thoughts on Bitcoin . Knowing Dalio, I know for a fact that he'd never talk publicly about anything without having done incredibly thorough research and dampened his psychological biases by speaking with the most talented people in the space. Dalio said bitcoin is a massive speculative bubble. I tend to agree.
It's hard to imagine Bitcoin prices plummeting if you've been in the space for a while. You've drunk the Kool-Aid. You're part of a community that believes one thing and it'd be wrong to believe otherwise.
My friends, I urge you - take a step back. Look at the facts. Look at the charts. Listen to the people who have decades of financial market experience and who've been through dozens of hype cycles. They've lived it - they know what they're talking about.
Bitcoin won't die. Its price will simply decline by around 80%, as will the prices of the majority of altcoins. Until the next hype cycle.