#crypto #bitcoin futures expiry where next ?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
looking at the "quant" side. You can see exactly what happens after futures expiry because I've drawn white verticals on the chart to mark the two which matter to me.

So what's to worry about? Well bar an escalation in Global tensions (worse case scenario could blast bitcoin into the stratosphere etc..), looking at my chart what would make my eyes pop is if the signal line did not keep going up, or, the market made a lower low than $7,374 made July 23rd. That's when both the Histogram and MACD went down together (indicated by purple verticals in each). Alternatively, could use the one from my previous post $7,333.1 . I've also extended a green trend line which connected November 12th 2017 low with Febuary 6th low that neatly runs through a support and resistance zone that mattered to me.

So what's the positive? Well I've marked it with a green box with yellow border which can be compared with the previous two others which matter to me. This took a tough bit of thinking. No an easy task using pure obsevation, and my kind of chart work. If support levels can hold then most people will already have worked out by simpler less mind boggling methods that there is a good chance of a double top like on previous occassions. I'm extending a little higher because I don't see any consecutive fractal highs or lows yet. That doesn't mean to say they need to happen.

Hopefully the next zoned box that I'll be creating will be the one I make using the volatility on the first day of the month, and most likely in between the high and low of the green box.

Yesterdays 26th July close was quite easy to predict as the previous day the Histogram had turned lower (green vertical) and the MACD was most likely to be next taking the price with it (green vertical). I had expected both to happen same day.

I'm going to stay long unless my support points are threatened, and need review.


See earlier posting for more on coloured boxes and verticals.

Key for my analysis. I've boxed in last 11 days of month from end Dec 2017. I'm only interested in the blue verticals on chart plus in the Histogram I have boxed in a series of 7 verticals (green, purple, green, purple, green, purple, green). We have seen a blue vertical and a green vertical so far in the Histogram both on July 20th. There could therefore be three purple verticals to follow plus another three in green. The first series ended 5th March, and the second 6th May so I've created a box in the Histogram extending to 6th August.


Note my MACD settings are:-

Fast Length 6
Slow Length 13
Source: Close
Signal Smoothing 31

Default settings Trading View are:

Fast Length 12
Slow Length 26
Source: Close
Signal Smoothing 9

Comment: The high of the current green square with yellow border is $9,370 which relates to the opening price of 8th May 2018.
Comment: Just before 27th April futures expiry there was a consecutive fractal top. It's been washed out because I forgot to bring it to the front but it will show up as a pink square if you place your cursor over it.
Comment: In the above chart zone C ends when signal line turns positive (dark blue vertical). I had previously shown it to end of August because I did not know when signal line would turn positive (above zero).
Comment: Check out my latest post Sunday 29 July on the daily:-

#crypto #bitcoin mega quant move here's how and why Y/N

Here's what you need to know........................If you ask me why I did not post this when market hit bottom, well its because I forgot. It's not easy keeping up to date with so many weird signals at once, and scouting for newer ones. Last time I was making a lot of posts about this signal was back in May, and was using the volatility to calculate a measured move...................Good luck technical analysts. No patterns are guaranteed to repeat for ever. At some point quantity and distribution methods have to change or price discovery mechanisms wouldn't properly work.........I'm sticking with my long for now, and my supports in earlier posts. Given the above I would not want to play it to close.

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