BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Loads of people are scratching their heads about Bitcoin at the moment, while some are chewing on their finger nails.

For those types the big question is 'Is it going to go up or down?' The latter is actually a novice-type question. Novices are occupied with which way 'it's going'.

More seasoned traders will know that all you can do is take a calculated affordable risk. I've entered long with a tight affordable stop loss on a daily chart . My reasoning is that there is a 50:50 chance of it going either way.

But also Bitcoin is about human psychology. 'Everybody' will be watching the weekly and monthly level of support. And that creates a probability that it could move north. How far north is the problem. Just to be clear: for every probability north there is a probability for the south in a 50:50 situation.

However, note that in the monthly chart price has a long way to go into the 'investor Guppy zone'. So it's possible that if the current apparent support is broken, that we would see price crash into the 4000-ish mark (near the Fib 76%) before any meaningful rebound.

Note also that on the Monthly time frame this is still a bull market. "Really?" you exclaim. Yes. Note the following:
1. Big wide investor Guppy zone (in green not yet penetrated).
2. Vervoot (amber line) well below the Guppy investor zone.
3. Time momentum on the Aroons is still bullish .
4. Price momentum is still positive but heading into a squeeze.
5. RSI is still above 50.


The above is the evidence available to everybody. There is a possibility that Bitcoin is a 'young phenomenon'. In 20 year's time this current 'crisis' of confidence could look silly if it reaches 100K to 500K. Hold your horses - none of this is advice or encouragement to buy Bitcoin!

My expectation - not prediction - is that if price breaks down from 6000, a bull run from 4000-ish is likely. That doesn't mean that price cannot go lower than 4000-ish. 2000-ish is certainly possible.

So if 'one' had $10,000 USD and was comfortable with a $8000 depreciation and was looking 20 years ahead, then one could jump in. I'm not 'one'. :))
Achieving the impossible means practising at the impossible.
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