For those types the big question is 'Is it going to go up or down?' The latter is actually a novice-type question. Novices are occupied with which way 'it's going'.
More seasoned traders will know that all you can do is take a calculated affordable risk. I've entered long with a tight affordable stop loss on a . My reasoning is that there is a 50:50 chance of it going either way.
But also Bitcoin is about human psychology. 'Everybody' will be watching the weekly and monthly level of support. And that creates a probability that it could move north. How far north is the problem. Just to be clear: for every probability north there is a probability for the south in a 50:50 situation.
However, note that in the monthly chart price has a long way to go into the 'investor Guppy zone'. So it's possible that if the current apparent support is broken, that we would see price crash into the 4000-ish mark (near the Fib 76%) before any meaningful rebound.
Note also that on the Monthly time frame this is still a bull market. "Really?" you exclaim. Yes. Note the following:
1. Big wide investor Guppy zone (in green not yet penetrated).
2. Vervoot (amber line) well below the Guppy investor zone.
3. Time momentum on the Aroons is still .
4. Price momentum is still positive but heading into a squeeze.
5. is still above 50.
The above is the evidence available to everybody. There is a possibility that Bitcoin is a 'young phenomenon'. In 20 year's time this current 'crisis' of confidence could look silly if it reaches 100K to 500K. Hold your horses - none of this is advice or encouragement to buy Bitcoin!
My expectation - not prediction - is that if price breaks down from 6000, a bull run from 4000-ish is likely. That doesn't mean that price cannot go lower than 4000-ish. 2000-ish is certainly possible.
So if 'one' had $10,000 USD and was comfortable with a $8000 depreciation and was looking 20 years ahead, then one could jump in. I'm not 'one'. :))