alanmasters

Will Bitcoin Retrace? If Yes, By How Much?

Short
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
These are the questions that I am now getting very often... If Bitcoin will retrace, how far can it go?

The potential targets we look at are based on the timeframe we are reading...

Even though we have a very strong bearish candle today, with really high volume ... It is still very early on this move, here is the daily (D) chart for BTCUSD:
  • We have today's bearish candle with a long lower wick.
  • Yesterday's candle supports today's bearish bias.
  • We have really high red volume ...
  • Prices remain above EMA10.
  • The uptrend is intact.

As you can see, it is still VERY EARLY in this current move with mixed signals based on TA.

But if we study the previous corrections and retraces, we can see that Bitcoin tends to test first EMA21, EMA50, and EMA100 after breaking below EMA10.

These levels coincide with the Fib. retracement support for the entire bullish wave starting back in March 2020.

These levels go as follow:

0.382 = $23200 (Matches EMA10 weekly)
0.5 = $19617 (Matches EMA21 weekly)
0.618 = $16034 (Just below EMA21 weekly)

It is too soon to tell on the daily timeframe so let's look at the 4H chart.
We will wait for a few more candles on this one and then share a new analysis.

The 4H timeframe is the main chart above.

Here we can appreciate the bearish bias more easily, the signals go as follow:

  • Prices broke and closed below EMA10 and EMA21.
  • EMA50 challenged on a wick. On this frame, prices can test up to MA200 and EMA200 as support, this is sitting around $24400 and $23100.
  • MACD histogram goes red while trending lower.
  • RSI breaks below 50 sending out a bearish signal.

In conclusion, we are aiming lower short-term.

Conditions for change
This can change if we see Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ) MOVE AND CLOSE ABOVE EMA10 on the chart above. This would invalidate the bearish signals/bias and put the bulls back in control.

This is a short-term analysis... Later on, I will share more when the daily candle closes and we get a better picture of how things will go.

If Bitcoin decides to take a break, this is great news... The altcoins will then grow strong.

Remember to hit LIKE!

Namaste.
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Comments

Less than a month ago, you try to fool us by your fancy drawing and predicted BTC price to retrace to $16000 when it was around $23000. Once again you are doing the same thing and comparing with 2017 without realizing that then no institutions were investing in BTC. It still gives uptrend signals before it retraces.
+4 Reply
@alanmasters I just don't get it. You always tell us how to listen to our hears /stay humble and that you have a positive personality saying you always want to help and educate people because you believe in Karma, right?

Then why do you start asking us to pay for a premium /livetime subscription for acurate charts and make more profits, as if you can look in to the future .
We all have seen and will see these type of telegram/discord pump dump scam groups when BTC is pumping and you know that.

Do us and your self a favour if you really believe in Karma as you always say and stop acting greedy and becomming a greedy person by making money on our backs.

For the rest of us don't be stupid no one can predict the future! There are enough sources on how to learn trading and you will learn best by making your own mistakes. Stay focused follow your heart, no one is here to make You rich.

Why lose your earnings on a stupid membership if you can invest and use the money yourself.

Namaste
+1 Reply
@ioui, See if you want to paste this same comment everywhere... It won't help... My reply might help you.

"Nobody is asking you to pay anything.

Start over, do your research, learn from your mistakes and you will be successful too.

There is no use in trying to blame me because you have no money, everybody has their own situation in this life.

If you want success, you will have to do your own work.

It is that simple.

Grow up and don't worry about my Karma, you should worry about yours.

I am going to be fine trust me.

Thanks for your care though.

Namaste."
+1 Reply
@alanmasters I agree with you, this guy is preaching to no one but himself.

He’s clearly made the mistake of going off of other people’s ideas, we’re all here to share ideas and see what other traders think could unfold.

Guy really needs a class in meditation

Namaste
Reply
Out of technical curiosity (correct me if I'm wrong), I looked at the 1D timeframe and while the RSI dropped low, there is a higher low in the price trend. Is not that a hidden bullish divergence? In this case it would mean that price dropped not because the sellers were pushing down, but because the buyers accumulated lower waiting for an entry?
+1 Reply
Kevynn11 molbioinfo
@molbioinfo, i have the same thoughts mate. Right now i feel like the bull to 40k has started. Let's hope it does!
Reply
The high volume candle was mainly down to liquidations right? The quiet recovery to 33k seems quite bullish to me.
+1 Reply
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