20-APR-2019 Cryptocurrency ( ): Easter Update
12-MAY-2019 Cryptocurrency ( ): Sell In May And Go Away?
17-JUN-2019 Cryptocurrency ( ): Solstice Update
The 2019 Bitcoin bull market which began from the lows of 06-FEB-2019, has now retraced a Fibonacci 38.2% of the entire 2018 bear market, thus far into JUN-2019.
The largest pullback of this bull market occurred from 14-MAY to 17-MAY, where a mini flash crash saw a rapid sell-off of up to 25% declines on multiple exchanges, notably pronounced on and BITMEX. Afterwards, from mid-MAY to mid-JUN, price action produced a choppy sideways affair elapsing a month with no clear direction.
Consequently, it was expected the first wave of the bull market had completed, and the first notable pullback of the bull market was imminently underway, correlating with the “Sell In May And Go Away” adage which gripped the stockmarket. This has proved to be incorrect. The month of choppy sideways price action has resolved with a breakout to the upside, necessitating a revision to the model…
* BTC: i.imgur .com/jIgIGDY.jpg
The characteristics of the 2019 bull market thus far, can be summarised by the following revised model:
+ Wave-1 (06-FEB — 23-APR): subdivided into smaller degree impulsive waves.
- Wave-2 (23-APR — 25-APR): a simple correction.
+ Wave-3 (25-APR — 14-MAY): a parabolic rise.
- Wave-4 (14-MAY — 09-JUN): a complex Running .
+ Wave-5 (09-JUN — ?): a parabolic rise?
The final and fifth wave of the waveset appears to be underway since 09-JUN. The following price zones speculate where this may terminate; using prices:
@9440: Fibonacci of the entire 2018 bear market.
@11390: Fibonacci 50.0% retracement of the entire 2018 bear market.
@13340: Fibonacci of the entire 2018 bear market.
The first aforementioned Fibonacci zone has already been reached; hence, there is a possibility to suggest the uptrend has either completed, or is nearing completion.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ( GBTC ) passively tracks the price of Bitcoin , but trades on the OTC markets from Mon to Fri during the hours of US equity markets. The reduced price action of a non-continuous contract may offer clarity with parabolic waves; at this point in time a drop to 10.8 is required to suggest the uptrend is complete…
* GBTC: i.imgur .com/f37YqE8.jpg
Once the uptrend concludes, it completes the first notable advance of the 2019 Bitcoin bull market. At which point, a Fibonacci may be expected for the first notable pullback of the 2019 Bitcoin bull market; perhaps commencing in the week of the Solstice and elapsing a couple of months over the summer lull. Afterwards, the bull market is expected to parabolically reignite by the early autumn and head towards new all-time highs in 2020.
The long-term overall model suggests four PRIMARY degree waves completed from mid-2010 to early-2019, and the fifth advancing wave is currently underway. Waves of PRIMARY degree elapse from a few months to a couple of years.
A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to, or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 times, the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave, projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22912 and $35127, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BNC:BLX) index…
@22912: PRIMARY = (PRIMARY + PRIMARY) * 1
@35127: PRIMARY = (PRIMARY + PRIMARY) * 1.618
Adjusted and renewed targets can be expected in the event of subdividing and extending waves.
* BLX: i.imgur .com/bVM5osX.jpg
Notable dates and esoteric trivia…
19-JUN-2019: Bitcoin CBOE Expiry
19-JUN-2019: FOMC Fed Interest Rate Decision
28-JUN-2019: Bitcoin Expiry
Guesswork is indicative of price/structure, not time.