I advise you to monitor the events in the near future in the USA and the situation on the stock market.
This is a backup plan, although unlikely. To understand, I advise you to read the description in the trading idea itself and the theory of Charles Dow.
We are ahead of the financial crisis. Dow Jones and Fed Rate%.
A good option. A scenario if we do not break the ascending line of the main trend (yellow line), and repeat the 2016 (October-December). As a result, the price is fixed above the downtrend secondary trend, which in turn launches a new panic hype as in 2017. A lot depends on the cryptocurrency market on what will happen in the near future on the stock market.
If we from the breakout zone repeat the upward trend as in 2017, then high in 363 days in the region of $ 250 thousand. Personally, I do not believe in it. So the price can only be raised if there is no bitcoin in the hands of ordinary people, and all BTCs are concentrated in the same hands of Big Brother. Not yet. Only complete centralization without the ability to earn a slave to the system can make such a price. I think that no one already believes that one person invented bitcoin - the mythical Satoshi Nakomoto. Also, I think everyone has already taken off their pink glasses and realized that the cryptocurrency project is a project from people who are now managing the financial world. Everything was created not for decentralization and anonymity, but rather for complete centralization and complete slavery.
All the important areas on which the further movement in one direction or another depends, I have displayed on the chart.
Bad option. If after lateral movement we continue to move in a secondary downtrend and break through the upward trend of the main trend. Then a completely different price reduction process is launched.
The entire algorithm of actions from breaking through or holding a certain level when breaking through the main uptrend trend I described in this trading idea:
BTC Inverted Dragon. The tragedy of faith. Important areas. Figures.
In these two teaching ideas, I clearly demonstrated and described in great detail how such formations are practiced
EDUCATION Dragon figure. Formation. Structure. Targets.
EDUCATION Simultaneously Figures Inverted Dragon and Dragon
When breaking through the zone of $ 7000, important areas on which further movement will depend
“Bear measured move” is the 3rd phase in which we are now.
I also outlined the main and secondary trends in ideas. This is from the basis of trading - the Dow theory. Works great for about 100 years in different markets. True, it is naturally necessary to take into account market changes over such a long period from the moment the theory was created.
I will describe this Dow theory a bit so that you understand the essence of the trading idea.
Six postulates of the Dow theory.
1) There are three types of trends.
2) Each primary trend has three phases.
3) The market takes into account all the news.
4) Stock indices must confirm each other.
5) Trends are confirmed by trading volumes.
6) Trends are valid until there is a clear signal of termination.
The market has three types of trend.
Trend analysis is the next step in the Dow theory. When the market moves in a certain direction, it never makes it a straight line. The market always moves like this: a new peak; rollback; new peak. A rollback is followed by a new maximum value, a new rollback, and so on until the trend changes.
As a result, any trend can be decomposed into several stages. Each stage will have its own maximum and minimum value. If the trend goes up, then each maximum value will be greater than the previous one. Similarly for a downtrend, where each low updates the previous low.
According to the Dow theory, there are 3 types of trends:
3) insignificant (small).
The main trend is a key market movement. To determine it, you need to open a larger timeframe on the chart, say, monthly or weekly. This global trend ultimately affects everything, including secondary and insignificant trends. According to the Dow theory, the global trend lasts 1-3 years, which, however, can change.
The main trend remains valid until there are clear indications of its completion. One of such indications may be, for example, closing the price below the .
A minor trend, as a rule, goes against the main trend or acts as a correction to it. This is how the main trend can go up, and secondary trends - down.
A ccording to the Dow theory, secondary trends last from 3 weeks to 3 months, and the rollback against the main trend lasts from 30 to 60% of its movement. Also, the secondary trend is usually much more volatile than the main one.
Minor trend (small). In theory, this is a market movement lasting up to 3 weeks. As a rule, it is a correction to a secondary trend.
The main trend has three phases.
According to the Dow theory, each major trend has 3 key phases:
1) phase of accumulation (distribution).
2) the phase of public participation.
3) phase of panic (realization).
This is the first phase, the beginning of an uptrend. It is at this stage that traders and investors enter the market, which can rightly be called professional. They have the greatest amount of information (often internal - insiders) about the current state of the market and the first to begin active actions. Other market participants do not realize at this time the state and direction of the market
The phase of public participation.
Participation phase Advanced investors and traders enter the market during the accumulation phase. In their opinion, the worst is over. When the trend really unfolds, the stage of public participation begins. Economic data are improving, the market is full of good news. The more such news, the more market participants connected in this phase. This phase is the longest of all, it is also characterized by the most active movement. Highs are constantly updated - exactly what investors were waiting for.
The phase of panic (implementation).
This is the phase where experienced traders and investors exit the market, while less experienced traders enter the market. As a result, such investors and traders are excited to buy at the peak of the trend, shortly before its spectacular fall. The same phase is a reversal phase - professional investors and traders understand that the market has exhausted itself and begin to close their positions opened in the first phase.
The crowd, in general, buys and sells at the wrong time
Look at the related BTC trading ideas for the last half of the year, I fixed them under the trading idea.
3) insignificant (small).
In small trends, a repeated correction of 33-41% occurs in a secondary uptrend. And these are all the components of the main trend. Amazingly not true.
Work according to the short scenario to the level of 7 thousand. Further from the reaction of the level.
As we can see, the zones work out perfectly. You can see the way out of the price from the zone of $ 7000-7600 to the important area of the downtrend that I designated in advance. There is a trend puncture, no more. The only important thing is fixing the price. If there is a consolidation above the downtrend, then this will mean a change in the downtrend. And at the moment we are in a general downtrend. All options for working from different situations, I described in great detail in several trading ideas and videos.