What a few weeks BTC is having, a 6 month bore after a catastrophic and not to say predicted downfall the crypto market seems to have found some excitement again. Now as far as the picture goes for the coming week or so I have to say it looks good, its had a very strong weekly closure last week and the current weekly candle suggests more upside is still to come. But how much longer can this constant green surge continue?
Time to get your thinking caps on....
ZOOM OUT, take a deep breath and have a look at the weekly chart. Yes its been a good day, a good week but why on earth are the 20+k calls leaking over our pages again? For those that have followed this market for at least 2 years you should know better by now.
The shows a well established channel and fairly consistent lower high and and lower low pattern which weve been in since Jan 2018. Now I know we all want a bull run, the good old days where BTC would move 1000's in a day and XRP was the lost king who breached the 3dollar mark.
However right is the time to be very sensible, this surge from 4k to the current price zone of 6.4k has yet to see a retracement, a long the way many authors and a lot of bears have been calling for a downside and major rejection but the bulls kept on surprising and have pulled us over 6k out of nowhere. But this hasn't changed anything YET. The last recorded lower high for me was set at the 7.4k (7419) and since then weve not reached anywhere these levels, now what does that tell you? That anywhere close but under this point would mean the lower high theory is still in play. So point one mark this region as if price surpasses this mark it may be a first tell sign of a change in trend.
Now the channel thats placed on the weekly and the trendline that was formed by the previous 6k floor (before the breach to the downside) suggests 6571 is the key region- Now a price surge up with room on both the weekly and daily could propel is quite easily to this price zone, but wouldn't it be too easy for bears to reject price at the quite obvious trendline and channel? So I think the zone between 6571-7.4k could be spiked into as either a stop hunt for shorters and an excitement spike for bulls to falsely suggest a bull trend. This could be very quick of course.
The perfect scenario for the so called big fish would be to let price surge above the trendline forming a new lower high between 6.5-7k and then seeing a strong rejection for a continuation of the downtrend. The targets to the downside are quite frightening based on the channel but lets discuss that if and when we get to it. Like i said this is my opinion as with this market nothings obvious, no TA works perfectly and the game is never easy. The only time I would confirm to myself that the trend has changed to a bull bias is theres a strong move beyond the 7.4k region which would then essentially wipe out the channel, the lower high theory and surpass the pattern of price movement weve had since the bear market began in Jan 2018.
Im open to discussions or happy to listen to your opinions but all I'd say is stop FOMOing, shut out the noise, you'll read over a 1000 opinions of which 500 suggest downside and 500 suggest upside. No one has a definitive answer but my time in the market has showed that price will never move as clearly as you think, yes this is great that BTC has surged but its merely covered up the ground it lost so quickly back in Nov 2018, its now at a point where it moved sideways in for 6 months. Remember you don't have to take every trade, sometimes its easier to let the market move and show you a better narrative for you to decide when and how to invest your money.
Be cautious because when the bears do arrive they will arrive aggressively, the weekly has some space to move up and the daily could still move upwards and still maintain the current divergence its formed. My bias is the bear market isn't until the price suggests its over and surge to 6.4k has yet to validate that.
Hope you enjoyed the information, its not trading advice but if you appreciate the analysis do leave a like. Peace out, trade safe as always!