Now i've been assessing this chart with this current weekly candle which sets to close tonight and the accuracy of this channel has started to intrigue me. If this weekly candle closes with a wick rejection like its projecting currently it could be set to follow through with some significant downside movement. Now i'm not buying into this is a bull run, i've been following this market long enough to know when the idiots are shouting bull run and like a herd of sheep start buying into the highs they'll be the same people posting how crypto is dead a month later.
Theres a few possibilities but from the downside outlook, which in my book is the more likely option, we could see the remainder of 2019 be a catastrophic continuation in this bear market. The 6k breach which led us to 3.5k was when the so called experts were claiming the 6k was the floor and the constant bounce from this region above was rallied with cries of the bull run is back until we eventually kept knocking at the 6k floor and smashed down. Since we breached these regions we failed to return to test them again until now, so again as far as market dynamics are concerned theres nothing out of the ordinary here/ the bigger picture shows just how small these moves are in comparison to the previous swings up. Im keeping level headed as this current 7.5k spike still keeps into our theory and after re assessing the previous swing highs and lows until the 8.5k breaks there is no bull run. We are still in the same trend maintaining lower highs and which has always eventually led to us crashing lower. The other interesting factor is since the last surge upto 18/20k the lower levels of around 1k- 1.5k have yet to be re tested. Could you imagine the depression in the market if them levels were achieved? And wouldn't that be perfect for institutions to suddenly flock into the market? The channel seems to line down pretty well to those regions. Just saying.
On the upside if BTC breaches 8.5k im happy to follow the trend and accept that a new cycle is on its way and that the previous lower high theory is invalidated and we begin to incline in this crypto market. However until that point there are too many possibilities and if you've followed this market long enough you know that when the noise gets loud, news starts to suggest BTC is back, analysts start showing you log scales of how BTC will be 150k by 2021, sheep start shouting bull run from the roof tops thats usually when the bears return. I don't particularly have a favourable direction but the point is to be level headed until the market direction becomes clearer.
Im waiting for this weekly close and over the course of this next month we could see what prevails, this post is purely for a long term crypto outlook. The weekly picture still remains and until there's confirmation in either direction I will not accept or listen to the crowded and sheep like noise that surrounds and consumes this market on every bounce or every drop.
Stay safe, any questions feel free to pop up. Trade wisely and just take a deep breath , sometimes let the direction become clear before slamming your money in.
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