sanuwat25
Long

BTCUSD touching the 6 year long schif pitchfork - will it hold?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This week Bitcoin has made a big move onto the downside and is now right on the 6-year long term Schiff pitchfork support level .

I suspect that this support level is strong enough and should hold the price until the end of this week but the fact that it has now gone below the 50 EMA on weekly chart will definitely reduce the bullish outlook on bitcoin - at least for the next few weeks. Another bearish signal is also forming which is the death cross between the 50 and 200 EMA lines. Personally I use EMA to find support and resistant level more so than looking at death cross but it is worth to keep that in mind.

If the price of bitcoin can close above the 50 EMA on the weekly chart, then the price action would suggest that the Schiff pitchfork support level still holds and that we could at be in a sideway market above the support level and remains below the downtrend trendline for a few weeks.

In my opinion, I think that this Schiff pitchfork support level will not hold as the price increase gradient according to this Schiff pitchfork is ~100% per year. Although it has been true for the past 6 years, it is unlikely to hold true as the marketcap increases. This is because we will need to rely on more capital and time before the next major price movement (and by major I mean 100%+ and not +-10% which I considered to be just noises in this volatile market). The next Schiff pitchfork that I have (not shown here) suggests that bitcoin price in the next major bull run can give a return of ~60% per year which is definitely more realistic than the one we have been in for the past 6 years.

However, we need to stay objective and follow the chart so as long as the current Schiff pitchfork support level holds true, then we should trade according to that and hence why I'm on long while risk controlling my portfolio risk with position sizing.

The main support now would be ~6300 (7200 +-12% for unexpected volatility ). Going below that could suggest the main support to be the next Schiff pitchfork at ~4800 (~5500 +-12%).
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