April 20th (i.e. 420) — An international counterculture holiday, where advocates gather protesting in civil disobedience to celebrate and consume recreational drugs. Counterculture currencies are also seeing fractals and getting ‘high’.
Since the April Fools' low of 6245 (Bitfinex), the Bitcoin market has rallied 30% thus far.
The upward price spike on 12-APR saw a 20% gain in a single day on heavy volume. The rapid move caught the bulls by surprise with the majority disengaged in the rise as indicated by the BTCUSDLONGS index, which declined on the day instead of surging upwards to correlate with price action. It appears the price spike has been exacerbated by a short-covering rally squeezing out bearish positions as indicated by the BTCUSDSHORTS index which collapsed 40%.
Quite an April Fools’ which has stoned both the bulls & bears. As of yet, there still doesn’t appear to be any news correlation as a driver for the price spike which is quite unusual.
It was initially assumed that the rally from the 01-APR low was retracing the decline from 21-MAR, and the magnitude of such a wave limited to circa 20% representing a Fibonacci 38.2% retrace. However, the magnitude of the rally has thus far exceeded the mid-March rally which saw price appreciate 27%. Consequently, it appears the current rally is actually retracing the larger decline from 05-MAR to 01-APR; and subsequently, a degree adjustment to the Elliott Wave model is required.
From the 6245 low set on 01-APR, the Bitcoin market rallied 17% and then gave up 13% of those gains before trading sideways in a choppy 10-day affair. On 12-APR, the market broke out of that range and has thus far rallied 25%. A net gain of approx 30% so far. The meandering price action prior to the breakout price spike has been identified as a Symmetrical Triangle pattern, where consolidating and tightening price gave way to the breakout.
The following are Fibonacci retracements of the 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018 decline of where the current trip may peak:
Lower Range
@8440: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
@9063: 50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
Upper Range
@9685: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
@9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.
With rising price creating negative divergences against a declining overbought RSI on the 4-hr timeframe, and already reaching the initial target of 8440; the rally is looking baked and may complete within the aforementioned Lower Range targets, where the average is 8752.
Currently, taking out 8032 would indicate weakening upside momentum.
When the high wears off, a sober market is expected to resume towards 4257 which represents the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market. Should the price range of 15-APR mark the high, then a decline to 4257 would be a Fibonacci 0.786% extension of the decline from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018 —wonderous phinance!
Speculative guesswork Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure not time:
BTC (4-hr): i.imgur.com/k4aJS0L.png
BTC (Weekly): i.imgur.com/8B5Na3A.png
BTC (Daily): i.imgur.com/4cBYLty.png
Since the April Fools' low of 6245 (Bitfinex), the Bitcoin market has rallied 30% thus far.
The upward price spike on 12-APR saw a 20% gain in a single day on heavy volume. The rapid move caught the bulls by surprise with the majority disengaged in the rise as indicated by the BTCUSDLONGS index, which declined on the day instead of surging upwards to correlate with price action. It appears the price spike has been exacerbated by a short-covering rally squeezing out bearish positions as indicated by the BTCUSDSHORTS index which collapsed 40%.
Quite an April Fools’ which has stoned both the bulls & bears. As of yet, there still doesn’t appear to be any news correlation as a driver for the price spike which is quite unusual.
It was initially assumed that the rally from the 01-APR low was retracing the decline from 21-MAR, and the magnitude of such a wave limited to circa 20% representing a Fibonacci 38.2% retrace. However, the magnitude of the rally has thus far exceeded the mid-March rally which saw price appreciate 27%. Consequently, it appears the current rally is actually retracing the larger decline from 05-MAR to 01-APR; and subsequently, a degree adjustment to the Elliott Wave model is required.
From the 6245 low set on 01-APR, the Bitcoin market rallied 17% and then gave up 13% of those gains before trading sideways in a choppy 10-day affair. On 12-APR, the market broke out of that range and has thus far rallied 25%. A net gain of approx 30% so far. The meandering price action prior to the breakout price spike has been identified as a Symmetrical Triangle pattern, where consolidating and tightening price gave way to the breakout.
The following are Fibonacci retracements of the 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018 decline of where the current trip may peak:
Lower Range
@8440: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
@9063: 50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
Upper Range
@9685: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
@9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.
With rising price creating negative divergences against a declining overbought RSI on the 4-hr timeframe, and already reaching the initial target of 8440; the rally is looking baked and may complete within the aforementioned Lower Range targets, where the average is 8752.
Currently, taking out 8032 would indicate weakening upside momentum.
When the high wears off, a sober market is expected to resume towards 4257 which represents the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market. Should the price range of 15-APR mark the high, then a decline to 4257 would be a Fibonacci 0.786% extension of the decline from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018 —wonderous phinance!
Speculative guesswork Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure not time:
BTC (4-hr): i.imgur.com/k4aJS0L.png
BTC (Weekly): i.imgur.com/8B5Na3A.png
BTC (Daily): i.imgur.com/4cBYLty.png
