Firstly Soros factor. Growing Hedge Fund interest in market. Unlike futures who needed to pump up market before end of 2017 to acquire critical mass, Hedge Funds strip what's left of excess mass. So either you think bitcoin has hit reality and can't go down further, or, is going to get its reality check from these guy's. I've already published charts with patterns of Williams Fractals occuring at turning points and marked them with fingers pointing downwards. Well, I've got some more. They are whenever a pink Williams Fractal pattern is higher than a blue, and I've marked them with red warning signs. I've also created some vertically shaded yellow columns. This is a code red area. This is what can happen when you have consequitive greater highs and greater falls in the MACD bar chart. I've marked the idea with arrows A,B,C,D as an example. All crossovers are marked with black vertical lines. C,D, shows a consequitive drop in bars. I am now waiting formation of a crossover and for a consequitive rise A,B. B would have to rise above 7.6344 to trigger code red. If we are not going to get one then just study the gaps beteen the vertically shaded yellow columns for clues to possible outcomes. Note that in the MACD the letter "B" awaits crossover and rise above previous record of 7.6344 and is just illustrative (the arrow is not pointing to where I expect this to happen). I have listed many other clues for shorting Bitcoin in my other postings. I hope my charts will help illustrate the current potential dangers. Good Luck, and enjoy.
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I don't study the 1 hour chart but I can't help remarking that it currently looks suicidal.
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Green bar if it holds up confirms crossover - black vertical. Then we need a rise on the MACD bars above 7.6344 to trigger code red.
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There are times if you look back at the shaded yellow vertical columns when market has gone down and come back up and even gone higher. There is still a lot of judgement to be made once the cross goes above 7.6344. I have factored other stuff in from my previous postings to believe it's an opportunity for a short. I could change my mind on a short though depending on how high the price goes.
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Observation. I think what may increase to the downside a code red in my chart is that both the most recent highs have been marked in the MACD with the averages having been above zero.
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Confirmed code red triggered. Hope you got your strategies worked out right.
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Gap between my Bollinger Bands is near $300 and there is a trend line just above the lower Bollinger (in fact two). Break out with such a squeeze usually indicates direction. If it heads down it will break the trend lines in the process which should add momentum. Then again although there are multiple warnings out to short the market maybe we'll get a bounce or flash crash.
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On 4 hour chart whether price is above or below middle Bollinger (20, close, 3) appears significant at this juncture.
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Was that a dollar bounce from lows on economic stats that just pushed Bitcoin past 50% at $6,890.9 ?
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As long as MACD bars keep rising ever higher we are still in code red. When they stop rising that is where the blue vertical line stops.
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When to go long? I've got three choices on the 2 hour chart. They are all points which had great significance in my thinking to go short. Williams Fractals (50% $7,367.6 H =$8,120.2), (50% $7,037.3 H=$7,509.7), (50% $6,991.5 H=$7,189.0). I cancel all my thoughts about shorts with a stop $7,189.0. Review going long. Can always short again later.
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When to go long extra? Those 3 points on the 2 hour chart mentioned above would also apply to the 4 hour. Bollinger Bands also narrowed on 2 hour chart to indicate that a touch of the bands either way would signal direction of market (sometimes can be false and you need a strategy to deal with). It's already done that once on the 2 hour chart indicating a possible break higher. If it did that again or broke beyond the previous touch could use that as a closer stop. The 4 hour chart also has bands close enough that if price touched would indicate where price was heading next.
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See my new post "When to go long or stop shorts?"
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All long for now. Price smashed through Bollinger Band again 2 hour chart.
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I'm now going to switch to monthly and weekly charts. Less work.
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I think I'll take on the daily charts as well but may look more like I'm copying from others.