I forsee us bouncing around the $7800-7300 region for the next week to reach the end of the pattern before a real move up or down. Watch either way to be clear it's not a DCB fakeout. If the move is upwards bulls would be aiming to retest the $10,000 , but plays into a big senario to head back down.
If we breakdownwards, i believe we will lose the $7,000 support and retest $6,500. Will have to update if we reach that area, but i would predict it wouldn't hold and we go down nearer 5k for a year long bear market, which imo we need to shake out some of these terrible alt, and overvalued coins before another bull market can begin next year with some positive news and new retail buyers.
TLDR: sideways for the next week, before breakout. Watch , if it's there long break to upside, short downside.
Yesterday caught a lot of folks with their hands in the cookie jar. It didn’t help it happened on a weekend. A lot of the signs were there, with the biggest being the absolutely abysmal volume. If the bounce off 7050 had been a legitimate reversal, it should have signaled a retest of the pennant top over 9K. If all the signs were pointing to >9K, buying at 7xxx should have been easy. The fact that it stalled out under 7800 was extremely unnerving, and it was the motivating factor behind hedging my position there. I opened a short at 7500 and an additional add at the breakdown of 7150 and we were under 6800 within minutes. My targets are (roughly) 5k,3k,1.3k
The biggest question is where we go next. I posted yesterday that I’m expecting more downward movement following the daily pennant breakdown. I still hold that view, but I’m a little surprised by the length of sideways we’ve had. We’re in a bear flag (sort of–pretty flat), but volume profile fits. We’ve chopped here sideways long enough to reset RSI on the small-medium time frames. Still oversold on 2H-1D, but room to drop on the shorter frames and the weekly. That said, I do expect we’ll be retesting 6900-7000 at some point. We moved through it without a second glance. Doesn’t mean we will–we very well could leg down again and test 6700 as support-turned-resistance.
All eyes should be on 6400-6500. This is a relatively HVN for this range, historical support, and our last low. Breaking below that would be very, very bearish. I’m holding my shorts (5x 40% from 7505 on June and 2x 50% from 6810 on swaps) until 7K breaks with confidence.
The LONGS:SHORTS ratio has narrowed, but I still don’t think we’re in substantial danger of a short squeeze. Further, I’m failing to see any particular reason for a reversal. I’ve been blowing that horn since we got rejected off 11.7K, but I just don’t see it yet. I think it will come, but I don’t think it’s going to be this summer. As always, I try to evaluate what the market is doing through the lens of the current environment, sentiment, and fundamentals. I see no compelling argument for BTC being worth what it’s worth that doesn’t begin with “It will be worth so much more later.” I’m optimistic that the environmental changes necessary to facilitate adoption will occur and that BTC will be worth so much more later, but I’m a trader, and I can substantially increase the number of coins I hold for that eventuality without committing additional fiat. Why would I not? Also note the use of optimistic rather than confident–I am not confident of that outcome, and I advise anyone who wholly believes that BTC will succeed to take a step back and evaluate the possible outcomes.
Good luck all.