CeccagnoF
Education

2 weeks BTC analysis

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
After few analysis i decided one of the best timeframe to spot the primary trend and reversal for BTC is the 2 weeks timeframe. The 1 month timeframe is too high as the asset is too young and it wouldn't be sensitive enough to give us reliable signals of reversals top and bottoms. Certainly there are many similarities between 2014 and 2018 but we always need to bear in mind that the asset is really young and compare the assets later in the trend with their behaviour at their birth is not always ideal, as many factor can affect the market right now that are completely different from back then. with the first one being the type of investor in the market, their mind and psychology. As you can see from my analysis we can appreciate how the indicators have been reliable and quick to signal tops, bottoms and supports. Also WMA has been a good dynamic support. In 2014 BTC formed a "bull flag" culminating in an accumulation phase. the record volume showed after the accumulation sign the start of the next bull trend. Similarly and as expected BTC has formed another bullish pattern "bull pennant". The volume has started to expand which is typical during accumulation phases. I expect the accumulation phase to end November - December and the new bull run to start in January 2019. The range will be between 7k and 6350 - 6150. Bear in mind that the trendline will provide support in any move below the market structure. ROC showing a new support, similarly to 2014. In bull trend (primary trend) the indicators range on the north side and the ROC indicators is starting to migrate north again after the last parabolic blow off, typical mega overbought condition during the first phase of a young rising bull market.
I'll keep my eyes open for any reversal sign and confirmation.
Educational purpose only

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