On this particular pair i am currently neutral in my bias, however that being said Bitcoin could be on the verge of a reversal the reason for this analysis lies within the harmonic trading approach, the first pattern that has been discovered is the biggest one which is the BAT, but in the harmonic trading approach it requires specific alignments to validate a pattern and at every point in the pattern aligns with the bat accept from 2 points, the AB=CD unfortunately when measured from A - B - C with the fib extension tool the level that could most likely be used is the 1.618 extension but this does not come near the current PRZ around where the price is now, another thing is the fib retracement slightly exceeds the maximum of 0.886 and almost completely aligns with the previous high. Now for a BAT to be valid ideally wants to see the AB=CD extension 1.618 come together with the other alignments in the PRZ (potential reversal zone). However this is still interesting as the 0.886 and the 2.24 levels align very close together this will be interesting to watch if this support zone holds also the C point should really be between 0.382 and 0.886. Another smaller pattern that has been discovered is the AB=CD pattern and just so happens to align with the PRZ Of the BAT which is a significant find as the move from AB aligns with just under the 0.707 retracement which corresponds with the 1.41 projection of the BC leg and the AB=CD extention tool shows a near bang on 1.00 measured from the A - B - C points.
In summary with this multi pattern present actually helps to validate this support zone as possible strong support that could see a reversal from this level, however as the BAT does not align fully at the PRZ i'm still dubious and hence why i'm neutral in my bias, when trading the BAT a good point to enter a trade is at the 0.886 retrace-ment of the XA leg but as it does not align ideally then i would want the wait to see the terminal price bar (the lowest point it would go be for reversal) in this situation i think its important to be patient and let the market come to us be for jumping the gun i would want to see a significant move upwards after the Terminal price bar before i consider opening a long position in Bitcoin.
PS All this information iv learned regarding this analysis is based off Scott Carneys book harmonic trading volume 1, if your interested id highly recommend the harmonic trading approach the accuracy of these patterns can be very high and if you back test these patterns you will see the significance of this approach, without people like mark sharing this information to every day people we would not have accsess to valuable information that would usually be kept by big banks and institutions, people like mark have all-ready done the hard work of discovery, all we need to do is learn a great strategy and apply it. I like this approach as i do not want to be an everyday trader in the city as thay seem to be too short sighted in there methodologies and they become followers of the market using such short time frames don't get me wrong i frequently trade on 5 min charts as well but i'm talking less than that. I like the idea of predicting the future price action with accuracy and the natural order of things using FIB numbers, i think the key is to see the big picture using multi-time frame analysis i'm not saying i'm right i may be wrong about city traders but from what i can see they seem to be always trying to be in the market and if your not in you aint making money, I believe trading can be easy or as hard as you make it and if you trade from the heart with passion i think freedom and time will come to spend with friends and family which is really probably your most valuable asset so id choose being a retail trader over a city trader any day as Scott said full time trading is not a full time job.
Happy trading
In summary with this multi pattern present actually helps to validate this support zone as possible strong support that could see a reversal from this level, however as the BAT does not align fully at the PRZ i'm still dubious and hence why i'm neutral in my bias, when trading the BAT a good point to enter a trade is at the 0.886 retrace-ment of the XA leg but as it does not align ideally then i would want the wait to see the terminal price bar (the lowest point it would go be for reversal) in this situation i think its important to be patient and let the market come to us be for jumping the gun i would want to see a significant move upwards after the Terminal price bar before i consider opening a long position in Bitcoin.
PS All this information iv learned regarding this analysis is based off Scott Carneys book harmonic trading volume 1, if your interested id highly recommend the harmonic trading approach the accuracy of these patterns can be very high and if you back test these patterns you will see the significance of this approach, without people like mark sharing this information to every day people we would not have accsess to valuable information that would usually be kept by big banks and institutions, people like mark have all-ready done the hard work of discovery, all we need to do is learn a great strategy and apply it. I like this approach as i do not want to be an everyday trader in the city as thay seem to be too short sighted in there methodologies and they become followers of the market using such short time frames don't get me wrong i frequently trade on 5 min charts as well but i'm talking less than that. I like the idea of predicting the future price action with accuracy and the natural order of things using FIB numbers, i think the key is to see the big picture using multi-time frame analysis i'm not saying i'm right i may be wrong about city traders but from what i can see they seem to be always trying to be in the market and if your not in you aint making money, I believe trading can be easy or as hard as you make it and if you trade from the heart with passion i think freedom and time will come to spend with friends and family which is really probably your most valuable asset so id choose being a retail trader over a city trader any day as Scott said full time trading is not a full time job.
Happy trading
Trade active:
I would be looking to enter the market with confirmation of the bullish candle i would look to open 1 full trade and with 2 take profit targets my first targets, my trade would be split in to 2 portions i would first look for the market to give me a small profit. my first target would be placed 8499.93 which is the 0.382 retracement of the fib retracement drawn from the extreme points of the bat pattern so point A to point D and the 2nd TP at the 10664.93 level my initial stop when opening the trade would a couple points below the previous major high which is the X point of the bat pattern when my first TP is met at the 8499.93 level i would move the stop just past the execution point so i would have secured a quick profit and in case the price reverses and i get stopped out then no harm done and i walk away with a small profit but. . if all that fails then the price will enter the stop loss zone and i will walk away with a loss
Comment:
i Would get ready to unload half of the position at the 0.382, once its hit we would bring the stop up just past the execution point to secure profits and minimize risk
Comment:
look to remove half your bitcoin position off the table and leave half on, move the stop past the exicution point to secure any profits allready made
Comment:
NEW PATTERN DISCOVERED BEARISH ALTERNATE BAT PATTERN
This gives more information as to the direction of bit coin over the next week as this alternate bat pattern has emerged then this could indicate a continuation of the downtrend, as it has emerged then i would start to unload any open positions if the price closes below the trend line.
This gives more information as to the direction of bit coin over the next week as this alternate bat pattern has emerged then this could indicate a continuation of the downtrend, as it has emerged then i would start to unload any open positions if the price closes below the trend line.
Comment:
Trade closed manually:
now the trend line is breeched we would exit the position