A new study to add to the many I've done. Used CCI in log scale which revealed some interesting insight because all year these are the only two occasions with this much and the same amount of choppiness. The last time it was bullish. Could it repeat. My only worry at the minute is that my last key signal was bearish.
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GREAT NEWS FOR BULLS
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Another encouraging bullish observation
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If you wish to view the last 52 charts in one thread check out my post dated Sept. 24
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Forgot to slip this one in from a previous thread to illustrate what happens when price shoots out the other side of the box
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Just for fun it's not often that Bollinger band width has been so narrow and had wondered how to get a look in and compare with the past. I picked all the points with narrow bandwidth lower than today. I then chose a 78 day MA because it was closest to the top band of the Bollinger and looked back to find the closest match. Below are my results.
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While waiting for the market to confirm some new fractals I thought to keep busy. Here is a follow up on my above study of Bollinger band width which had become so narrow. I found two best fits (using "psychological" profiling) in the above study and wondered whether could take it up another notch. I decided to use Stoch (K at 200) and Stoch RSI (RSI and Stoch both at 200) to log scale and WOW did I get a surprising result. Enjoy. Remember always 50/50 no matter how convincing.
(NOTE: When I did the FIB's I did not use the 2014 Low - didn't think it would make much difference and was such a one off event)
(NOTE: When I did the FIB's I did not use the 2014 Low - didn't think it would make much difference and was such a one off event)
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Too much trouble right now to go into detail how I created these charts below (if some indicators look different to yours it could be that I've converted them to log scale) but to me at the moment the indicators don't appear to have reached their max like on previous occasions (room to go higher maybe). Like everybody else I've also been wondering if recent price volatility can be trusted (can't exclude anything).
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Here's how I picked the vertical bars above. Picked all the fractal highs with pivot points which also corresponded with same colour Aroon at 100. I then took the volatility of those days and extended it by three days to form a pink box. I than analysed using other indicators some using Log and others not.
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Don't do 4hr chart but thought I'd have a go using same as for daily above and see what happens. Have used Fib's
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Market may be completing one of my key signals which are bordered in yellow (will have to wait till end of day to find out). They are created using MACD (6,13,CLOSE,31) When histogram goes in opposite direction to close based on open two days in a row. See previous charts and tweets for more info/illustration construction detail.
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In answer to my comment above note that market did not complete one of my key signals yesterday.
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Copy of latest post
Update (advanced study) - see previous posts or thread for more info. Note if some indicators look different to yours it could be that I've converted them to log scale, and customised.
Here's how I picked the vertical bars above. Picked all the fractal highs with pivot points which also corresponded with same colour Aroon at 100 (see enclosed chart). I then took the volatility of those days and extended it by three days to form a pink box.
In the above chart note that green boxed areas correspond with MACD indicator where fat green line rises and then blue histogram bars start appearing - all like the pattern now.
See previous posts for charts/arguments of what could be bearish instead.
Here's how I picked the vertical bars above.
Here's previous study (zoomed out) using standard MACD.
Here's how I picked the vertical bars above. Picked all the fractal highs with pivot points which also corresponded with same colour Aroon at 100 (see enclosed chart). I then took the volatility of those days and extended it by three days to form a pink box.
In the above chart note that green boxed areas correspond with MACD indicator where fat green line rises and then blue histogram bars start appearing - all like the pattern now.
See previous posts for charts/arguments of what could be bearish instead.
Here's how I picked the vertical bars above.
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I've just done an interesting study of consecutive fractal highs and lows (one chart for each) using triangles ABCD - very interesting support and resistance levels revealed. I may publish them.
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Scraping the study relating to above comment "interesting study of consecutive fractal highs and lows" as results were too subjective, may have a go at it some other time.
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See latest post bitcoin bulls warning stockmarket danger !!!
One on my key signals which I've been following all year was confirmed at yesterdays close.
Biggest imminent danger is from another fall in stockmarket (could be short and quick).
I've included S & P 500 chart.
You can wait for the break out of the box but my guess is that if the stockmarket goes down it will take all crypto with it.
To find out how to construct my signals boxed in yellow check out my other postings. There's more than one way to trade them.
One on my key signals which I've been following all year was confirmed at yesterdays close.
Biggest imminent danger is from another fall in stockmarket (could be short and quick).
I've included S & P 500 chart.
You can wait for the break out of the box but my guess is that if the stockmarket goes down it will take all crypto with it.
To find out how to construct my signals boxed in yellow check out my other postings. There's more than one way to trade them.
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Global stocks have started off well today 22 October. Which way will the breakout of the latest yellow box in my chart be. This week is also futures expiry week. In past when my signal has been in futures expiry week the market has been known to break out one way and then go the other. Could it do same again, or, are we in a different set-up. If price continues higher great. If not then hope the downside will be limited enough to keep my stack of bullish charts/arguments in play.
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How vulnerable is bitcoin and crypto to stock outlook S&P and Nikkei225. Boxed areas in yellow on bitcoin chart are linked to my previous posts. For construction see earlier posts.
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bitcoin appears to shadow EUROSTOXX 50 Index or vice versa around some key points. What do you think?
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Trap or launch pad
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Copy of my latest post: "bitcoin bulls "to the moon" maybe & here is some reasoning"
New study using my custom signals. See previous posts for construction. What first struck me with my latest signal was that both days had opposing fractals. Only happened one other time this year. You can check the match for yourselves. This time the patterns appear to be forming in reverse - a signal to get ready to take a long position maybe. More then one way to trade these signals (in combination with others maybe), but you got to work it out for yourselves.
Bitcoin price has recently been defying gravity and that is probably why volume so low. The retail side has been snuffed out. This suggests to me that its industry insiders what's propping it up. Reason: with many new industry competitors and fixes due to come on stream over the next 12 months could it be that bitcoin has now become too valuable a "bell wether" to let fall below key support levels? Will see. Next week is bitcoin anniversary. If Global markets even temporarily rebound, what a party it could be.
New study using my custom signals. See previous posts for construction. What first struck me with my latest signal was that both days had opposing fractals. Only happened one other time this year. You can check the match for yourselves. This time the patterns appear to be forming in reverse - a signal to get ready to take a long position maybe. More then one way to trade these signals (in combination with others maybe), but you got to work it out for yourselves.
Bitcoin price has recently been defying gravity and that is probably why volume so low. The retail side has been snuffed out. This suggests to me that its industry insiders what's propping it up. Reason: with many new industry competitors and fixes due to come on stream over the next 12 months could it be that bitcoin has now become too valuable a "bell wether" to let fall below key support levels? Will see. Next week is bitcoin anniversary. If Global markets even temporarily rebound, what a party it could be.
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FINGERS CROSSED THAT SUPPORT HOLDS. SEE HOW PREVIOUS SIGNALS WORKED OUT ON CHART.
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Here is one technique I think is pretty cool for trying to find a match to a technical set up which may sometimes be of interest (I invented it). I've demonstate it in a previous post just using Bolinger, but here I'm going to include a resistance point too. First moving average is set to match the highest Bollinger band. The next is set to match a resistance point $6660.8 made 21st October. Checked this back to 2013 where pink MA is above orange MA, pink MA is closest to Bollinger, and points where price crossed through both. Enclose my results below.
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Will #bitcoin defy gravity because here is my OMG take on S&P 500 $SPX. I get a match with 1990. Bollinger bandwidth STD 1 plus moving average match using my custom technique one fixed at center of current Bollinger band and the other at current days low #crypto #markets #SPX
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Looks like gold bugs decided to crash in on bitcoin 10th Anniversary party, and getting ready to Moon. Bitcoin may form a consecutive fractal low but otherwise cool. Yellow boxed signals currently favour bears with a few exceptions mentioned in previous posts which given bulls fighting chance.
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Just thought I'd update on what my main chart currently looks like. I usually clear it up or add something when I produce a new study. More then one idea in there.
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Copy of new study just posted
#bitcoin new bull argument/pattern developing maybe
A new study of consecutive fractal lows using STOCH RSI to log scale. Noticed that when K in blue hits zero on its own without D and before a consecutive fractal low is confirmed the result has been bullish .
#bitcoin new bull argument/pattern developing maybe
A new study of consecutive fractal lows using STOCH RSI to log scale. Noticed that when K in blue hits zero on its own without D and before a consecutive fractal low is confirmed the result has been bullish .
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25 TH OCTOBER POST #bitcoin bulls "to the moon" maybe & here is some reasoning UPDATE (see notes on chart)
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Just added a couple of oscillator studies in log scale to try and get closer as to why some K spikes in STOCH RSI may have performed differently from others
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Thought to check on some stats to find out what has happened in the past with consecutive fractal lows followed two days after by higher highs and higher lows
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Copy of latest posting
#bitcoin (chart update) price and volume move could be key to confirming bear trap maybe
New updated study. Volume oscillator set to log scale did not confirm bull set up - following breakout of yellow boxed area (see previous posts for construction) This price and volume move could be key to confirming a bear trap maybe. See comparison with confirmation beginning of February see charts below
#bitcoin (chart update) price and volume move could be key to confirming bear trap maybe
New updated study. Volume oscillator set to log scale did not confirm bull set up - following breakout of yellow boxed area (see previous posts for construction) This price and volume move could be key to confirming a bear trap maybe. See comparison with confirmation beginning of February see charts below
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MEGA ERROR IN PRINT
Mega error Bear trap should read bull trap. Hope somebody noticed and is evident from evidence illustrated for comparison. Price to head in direction of volume as illustrated by oscillator.
Mega error Bear trap should read bull trap. Hope somebody noticed and is evident from evidence illustrated for comparison. Price to head in direction of volume as illustrated by oscillator.
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Here are charts again without print errors
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Have posted a new post with amended chart notes and heading see:-
#bitcoin this price and volume confirm a BULL TRAP maybe
#bitcoin this price and volume confirm a BULL TRAP maybe
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NOTE THAT TRAPS DON'T ALWAYS FOLLOW CONSECUTIVE FRACTAL HIGHS AND LOWS THEREFORE COULD JUST HEAD STRAIGHT UP OR DOWN
Chart below shows a couple of examples without traps
Chart below shows a couple of examples without traps
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Copy of post just published
#bitcoin BULL TRAP study using consecutive fractal lows
Only done this study of consecutive fractal lows for 2018. I may do another study going back further.
Here's what you do. From the last consecutive fractal low do a yellow arrow to the next conseutive fractal low. Then shade volatility in yelow. Then shade in blue or grey where the price went subsequently. and you get a chart looking like the one I've published. More than one way to trade the information no matter which way the market goes. Custom lower Bollinger Band could be helpful in catching peak of bull trap maybe (set to BB Length 20, Source low, Std Dev 0.001)
#bitcoin BULL TRAP study using consecutive fractal lows
Only done this study of consecutive fractal lows for 2018. I may do another study going back further.
Here's what you do. From the last consecutive fractal low do a yellow arrow to the next conseutive fractal low. Then shade volatility in yelow. Then shade in blue or grey where the price went subsequently. and you get a chart looking like the one I've published. More than one way to trade the information no matter which way the market goes. Custom lower Bollinger Band could be helpful in catching peak of bull trap maybe (set to BB Length 20, Source low, Std Dev 0.001)
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Sorry guys you will notice that something has gone wrong in the order in which I'm publishing some chart updates and commentaries.
There appears to be a "bug" at work in Trading View which hopefully will sort itself out soonest.
There appears to be a "bug" at work in Trading View which hopefully will sort itself out soonest.
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Here is an idea to base trading strategy using Log MACD Log VOLUME OSCILLATOR log PRICE CHART. Brown verticals mark switch of MACD Histogram to green and when VOLUME OSCILLATOR is above zero. Then box in pink volatility to first fractal. There is your box done to formulate trading strategy maybe.
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Copy of my latest post
#bitcoin "to the moon" or "back to hell" what maybe cooking
Volume oscillator & MACD Log format. Marked volume troughs & green MACD & red candle with purple vertical & green in orange. Joined consecutive fractal lows with yellow line. Picked first orange vertical & boxed 3 days volatility in white then wait for break out. Will next vertical be orange?
#bitcoin "to the moon" or "back to hell" what maybe cooking
Volume oscillator & MACD Log format. Marked volume troughs & green MACD & red candle with purple vertical & green in orange. Joined consecutive fractal lows with yellow line. Picked first orange vertical & boxed 3 days volatility in white then wait for break out. Will next vertical be orange?
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Just a note that in chart above the VOLUME OSCILLATOR is not to LOG scale but just the HISTOGRAM version with an added horizontal line in pink for marking zero. Only MACD and Chart are LOG scale.
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Copy of my lateast post
#bitcoin bull intact? "To the Moon" update.
Green MACD Histogram got off to a start with a peak in VOLUME OSCILLATOR ( Volume Oscillator not to LOG but Histogram Format with pink horizontal line added in to highlight zero) previous study needs to be set aside. Have included all such set-ups back to 2013. Have also included some RAYS of closing prices which I'm interested in keeping watch on from another study I've done but not published, as I think it's too subjective.
Had to decided whether trend line should be drawn from the joining up of the last two fractal lows in which case trend line has been broken or wait for a fractal high followed by a fractal low to form the trend line . I have chosen the latter. After forming fractal low price could travel sideways a bit so may have to adjust the trend line with any sideways movement etc.
#bitcoin bull intact? "To the Moon" update.
Green MACD Histogram got off to a start with a peak in VOLUME OSCILLATOR ( Volume Oscillator not to LOG but Histogram Format with pink horizontal line added in to highlight zero) previous study needs to be set aside. Have included all such set-ups back to 2013. Have also included some RAYS of closing prices which I'm interested in keeping watch on from another study I've done but not published, as I think it's too subjective.
Had to decided whether trend line should be drawn from the joining up of the last two fractal lows in which case trend line has been broken or wait for a fractal high followed by a fractal low to form the trend line . I have chosen the latter. After forming fractal low price could travel sideways a bit so may have to adjust the trend line with any sideways movement etc.
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As per the above. Need set aside previous post which was based on a different scenario. Looks Green run MACD Histogram starting off with peak in VOLUME OSCILLATOR. Not many since 2013. Looks potential positive. Care though: next day never made new lower low. Also see below - a lot more volatility in making the low of 2nd October 2016
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Note that peak in VOLUME OSCILLATOR has moved to 9th November. It followed market down. A fractal high has also now been confirmed. Notes on chart have been updated
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Up until now all bitcoin industry insiders and media stars have been able to boast OK bitcoin is down but look its still up. Now its different. If bitcoin does not hold above c.$5,400 and start rising that argument will be dead in the water. See chart below.
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#bitcoin nice touchdown based on trend lines maybe. Could it go lower or continue to trade sideways. Sure it could but right now looks like its hit a sweet spot on the weekly. See posts above for close up on the daily and why next week could be critical
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Copy of latest post
#bitcoin crash year on year performance study 2014 drop 65%
Notes of study on chart
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#bitcoin crash year on year performance study 2014 drop 65%
Notes of study on chart
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Copy of my most recent post
#bitcoin bear case argument but how valid
Using custom MACD (6,12, Close,31) marked first day up in Histogram light blue vertical when <0 and yellow first day down when >0. Work your strategy/opportunity from 1st fractal on or after vertical. I've just used the light blue verticals for my argument here.
#bitcoin bear case argument but how valid
Using custom MACD (6,12, Close,31) marked first day up in Histogram light blue vertical when <0 and yellow first day down when >0. Work your strategy/opportunity from 1st fractal on or after vertical. I've just used the light blue verticals for my argument here.
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Bull and bear watch for this signal if it confirms end of today because market insiders could be signalling time is up big volatility coming - additional notes on chart
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My latest update with notes on chart
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bitcoin bull and bear whether tothemoon or backtohell here's the big question. Do we need big dump this time to get pump, or, will it be same pump and dump like before. Could it work out different this time. Sure. Just highlighting battle market now facing
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Copy of my latest post
#bitcoin rise in ROC not volume key to next BULL RUN maybe
New study with huge implications maybe. Could make or break any future BULL RUN. Default indicator settings multiplied by four for Weekly Chart and by thirty for the Daily.
#bitcoin rise in ROC not volume key to next BULL RUN maybe
New study with huge implications maybe. Could make or break any future BULL RUN. Default indicator settings multiplied by four for Weekly Chart and by thirty for the Daily.
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#bitcoin can't ignore bull break out & upward sloping trend line using consecutive fractal highs flanked by 2 lows based on past performance + evidence maybe of triangle support bullish trend line + bullish breakout yellow box no whipsaw yet. Cautiously bullish
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Study of Momentum and ROC (Log Scale) looks like this best match of past two maybe. Cautiously bullish. Looks like just needs momentum to turn positive. See previous comment
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#bitcoin this looks bad at least I've never seen price break back out the yellow box one way, then the other, and back all year. Could it. Sure could, but right now bears in control
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Copy of my latest post
#bitcoin vs Yuan predicted end 2013-14 bear market maybe.
Can't predict todays outcome but Yuan had same bad month at start of this bear as back in 2013-14. They were first actors in both starts & may be first actors out again at end maybe. Blue verticals correspond to months when both markets red candles. More notes on chart.
#bitcoin vs Yuan predicted end 2013-14 bear market maybe.
Can't predict todays outcome but Yuan had same bad month at start of this bear as back in 2013-14. They were first actors in both starts & may be first actors out again at end maybe. Blue verticals correspond to months when both markets red candles. More notes on chart.
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#bitcoin decided publish this study only because something different or odd happened in this bitcoin price plunge which not happened before. This the fourth plunge. Maybe last two buoyed too much by ETF hype etc. No signals to help with buy or sell here though