doctorkesh
Education

Cryptogame - The Order In The Chaos

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hi everyone. I hope everyone is fine and doing well. Sorry I have been very busy at work these days hence was unable to post anything. The previous chart was getting too 'long' for the updates, hence I am posting this one.

Many things in the pipeline. EOS and TRX             have their main-net launch dates within the next few days. Still, because of the overall market sentiment, the regulatory clouds, CFTC investigations/probes into BTC             price manipulation in the market (they FINALLY figured out something was wrong lol!), the SEC focus on ETH being a security (or not), the price of BTC             is not going up. All the bulls who said that institutional money will be coming in soon... well, still waiting since the 22nd of December 2017.

This year is likely going to be similar to 2014 in my honest opinion, but mainly for BTC             . I think some of the alt coins (EOS, IOTA, ADA , XLM             for instance - may be BCH) will do well. There is another coin - RadixDLT. I have read their white paper and it looks very promising. The team is very polite and the main devs do respond to email queries themselves. Plus they are British! And since I live in UK and absolutely love the country, I will buy this one when it launches later this year.

I will keep updating the charts and also share my thoughts here. Please feel free to ask me any questions or send me a pm and I will aim to reply within 24 hours.

Over the past few weeks, many 'bullish' calls have been made by hedge fund managers and billionaire investors. And also by other billionaires (like Warren Buffet) calling all cryptos a scam.

The answer - everything is a scam! You need to learn how to use the market to your advantage. Don't get caught up with what others say. Everyone has an agenda. Rather than relying on one source, gather as much information as you can about the crypto you want to trade. Always look at the BTC             chart because even the most powerful pump or rally can be killed by a falling BTC             . If BTC             is overbought, then it will have some correction. It can kill almost any rally or pump instantly. So be careful. BTC             is the common denominator and is the main index against which all the cryptos are valued. Do your own research first. Don't invest 100% unless you are sure about what you are doing and have a contingency plan. If you are margin trading, then your investment is automatically exposed to an exponentially higher level of risk. So be careful and only invest the money you are prepared to lose.

About this chart. This is on a weekly scale and I have chosen the Bitstamp BTCUSD             chart this time. One of the main reasons is that this is the longest time-frame chart that we can look at for BTCUSD             pair and hence has more data than other exchanges. The three indicators used are RSI , DMI ( Directional Movement Index) and Stoch . I find that when I use these in conjunction and pitted against each other, they do provide a better insight than others. Of course there are hundreds of other useful indicators available. You should use the ones which you are more comfortable with.

The overall market volume is the key here. It has been dropping steadily over the past few days. I have a feeling that BTC             will visit the $5000-$6000 range soon, but I could be wrong.

Wish everyone all the best!
Comment:

BTCUSD - Bitfinex chart.

If/when the price goes below $6800, the only support is at $6400 and then all the way down to $5400-$5700 area. That's my target buying zone.
Comment: IOTUSD


EOSUSD


I think EOS is ready to have a rally before the main-net launch, but it can be killed by the falling BTC...

TRXUSD (Binance - calculated price chart)


I think TRX is ready for a rally to around $0.16-$0.20.... but once again, BTCUSD!
Comment: Bitcoin - The Channel & The Wedge

Comment: Comparison with previous charts and updates...

IOTUSD



EOSUSD
Comment: BCHUSD

Comment: BCHUSD Scenario 2

Comment: BTC testing the channel resistance

Comment: Be careful with any cryptos now. Bitcoin looks set to take a dive imho. All the major alts are also well positioned to take a dive with BTC.

I could be wrong, but I think we may have many good buying opportunities soon.
Comment:
Comment: The story so far....

Old chart, but updated...

Comment: The thick blue line....



Market's overall trading volume was pretty stagnant yesterday, pointing towards the indecisiveness amongst traders. One bad news (CFTC probe into BTC price manipulation through subpoena/by obtaining trading data from the 4 exchanges on which CME futures are based, along with trading data from CME itself) and this triggered the fall. And when BTC falls, everything else falls with it.

The final (supportive) trendline is now broken, meaning there is no upward trendline anymore. This year is now going to be a copy of 2014. To make matters even worse, if CFTC halts the CME BTC futures trading after finding trading irregularities leading to price manipulation (all the seasoned/skilled traders know that all crypto prices are manipulated at the highest level and there are many 'players' playing their part), it might just trigger the ultimate crash to 3k-5k ranges. This is not FUD, just a caution. Be careful. This is YOUR money and YOU are the one making trading decisions. There is NO protection available against any losses, so only invest the money you are prepared to lose.

Coming back to the chart, I think we will see BTC test the 5k ranges this time. As there is no REAL support left (the green bar in my chart was the support area within the triangle, which is now properly broken). All alts will see their USD values go down as on every exchange the real value is measured against BTC and not USD.
Comment: EOSUSD - Important support and resistance levels.

The direction remains downwards (with double force due to CFTC's BTC price probe and because of the ongoing voting issues related to blockchain producers, i.e. the centralization debate, which will make EOS more like XRP).

Comment: Interesting read; answers some questions:

https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-decline-caused-by-hodlers-unprecedented-30-billion-sell-off-research/

And in the news:
https://www.ccn.com/wells-fargo-bans-customers-from-buying-cryptocurrency-with-credit-cards/

Round 2 of the sell-off looking likely to resume within or after the next 24 hours. 24-hour volume is declining as well.
Comment: And here we are...




And still more to come....
Comment: Be cautious and don't get caught yet. Wait for a proper breakout.

Comparing the 1-hour chart from the 29th of March 2018 at 22:00 and the one just an hour ago.




vs.



May go up slightly, only to go further down 1-2 hours later. So be careful and don't get caught.
Comment: Yes... be careful...

Comment: Next 2-4 hours will decide the path...

Comment: For now it looks like it is still heading down, but then it could also be potentially forming the other shoulder for an inverted H&S formation.



I am now no longer interested in buying anything though. Since 2013 I have seen several collapses, and this year will give us a continued bear market with a few more bounces until we hit the bottom.

Historically BTC has lost up to 90% of its previous ATH values on many occasions. I hope this does not happen, and it probably won't this time, but there is still a possibility. I am still expecting $5k ranges, and in some worse scenarios even $4k, around the mid of July. That's roughly 30 days from now.

Wish everyone a nice weekend.
Comment: I am expecting some major movement very soon. The 24 hour overall volume has been going down and is slightly above 10 billion $. Market cap is also decreasing. Volume needs to go up, which can be sell volume or buy volume. Once again, this is the whole cryptomarket trading volume based on every fait pair and cryptocurrency pair. The lowest it has been was in the first 9 days of April, to around 8.8 billion $. Around that time, the overall market cap also decreased to slightly above $240 billion.

I would advise caution at this time. Can go either way.

In the pipeline for today, BIS is releasing their annual summary report sometime today with the full report coming out on the 24th of June. This report apparently contains two chapters only on cryptos... and in these two chapters cryptos have been reportedly criticized.
Comment: BTCUSD pennant formation

Comment: Based on TA alone, would you buy this coin?

Comment: Two possible scenarios....



In case BTc follows the second scenario, then the current price zone between $6300-$6500 will turn into a strong resistance zone.
Comment: Lack of volume and now volatility is also dying... this usually leads to a breakout, up or down depends on where the market controllers want it to go.

We might have something similar to the chart from 29th May till 9th June, followed by a drop (more likely) or a bear squeeze leading to 7.5k followed by a test of max 8.5k, where all the short orders will start to pile up again. We will need a very strong stimulus for that to happen though.

Don't forget that we have G20 coming in next month in July. Regulations will come in sooner or later. They will have some impact on the price, and we may see some major waves at that time. Until then, we can either relax and enjoy time with family/enjoy life, or keep sitting in front of the computer staring at these squiggly lines until something happens... :)

In terms of alts, all eyes on TRX and ETC for now.

Comment: The short term green support/trend line has been broken.

Can go either way still, but I suspect more downside, which is going to be painful if holding cryptos right now.

Just remember one thing. There is NO bottom right now. This is what Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt really means. BTC has a history of losing 90% value from the ATH most of the time. Only invest the money you are prepared to lose 100%. There are no guarantees and no protection from/against any authority.

In these events, usually flash crashes start to appear, mostly because of the margin calls being executed. Hence be very patient and careful.

Wish everyone a happy weekend.
Comment: I don't expect the fall to stop here.

The major catalyst today is coming from Japan.

All three are relevant:

https://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-crypto-bitcoin-exchange-creditors-win/

https://www.coindesk.com/japans-financial-watchdog-orders-aml-shake-up-at-6-crypto-exchanges/

https://www.ccn.com/japans-biggest-cryptocurrency-exchange-suspend-new-accounts-amid-stricter-regulation/

Under the given circumstances, and now that a move below $6k can induce panic selling and true capitulation, it would be wise to stay away from margin trading (as flash crashes can happen leading to major losses) and moving to exchange trading only.

I would advise keeping an eye on EOS, IOTA, DSH, XMR, NEO, BTG (yes NEO, DSH, XMR and BTG are pretty much way oversold now). BCH and ETH can still fall a long way (ETH to $360, BCH to $600 - March 2018 lows).

Comment:

Chart explains a lot.

Keep an eye on the 24-hour daily volume. I am expecting a big move in either direction over the next 24 hours now.
Comment:
Comment: BTCUSD Longs versus Shorts

1 hour scale:


4 hour scale:


Notice the RSI and DMI on both scales for BTCUSD Longs.

Possible long squeeze....
Comment: Bitfinex has been having issues with deposits.

https://bitsonline.com/bitfinex-fiat-deposits-processing/

Kucoin is closing their business in Japan due to regulation requirements. Also Houbi Pro is doing the same.

https://news.kucoin.com/en/kucoin-is-closing-our-services-to-traders-in-japan/

https://ethereumworldnews.com/houbi-pro-exchange-to-suspend-crypto-trading-for-its-users-in-japan/

And others:

https://www.coindesk.com/fbi-agent-confirms-130-crypto-related-investigations/

https://www.coindesk.com/bank-of-england-warns-finance-firms-over-crypto-risks/

Dark times. We really need a major positive news as an incentive for people to invest.

Many alts - IOTA, NEO, Dash, BTG are at bargain prices already; but if BTC falls below 5k USD even for a few minutes, it will unleash hell. All the naysayers will flood the news websites with their negative opinions and the market will see a proper bear phase for months which can extend to 2020.

The three good things out of all of this:
1. BTC will probably regain its dominance. No flippening, flappening, cashening or whatever.
2. Many can enter the market when it hits the lowest points. Even flash crashes can happen with good alts like NEO, IOTA, EOS and others.
3. We will get to see John Mcafee on the TV fulfilling his promise. he he he!
Comment: Reminds me of a user, CerebralEdge, at BTC-e trollbox who used to say:

"This is going to crash so hard! he he he he he he he he!"

;)
Comment: Could go either way, but we did have a nice breakout yesterday. CME futures expired yesterday (29th June) and this was not a huge surprise. I still suggest waiting till $6650 is broken, wait for a retrace and then buy.

Comment: https://www.coindesk.com/g20-calls-crypto-regulation-recommendations-july/

https://g20.org/en/calendar

We can see another wave down (3rd EW down). 6650 is my cut off at this time.
Comment: I am still looking for a sustained move above $6650, a retest of support above $6650 followed by an impulse wave up with good volume. Not happened so far and now weekend is almost over.

Also, please notice the pattern here. Around $700-$750 up from the dips every time, sideways action for a few days, followed by decreasing volume and the sudden rise in sell volume with a dip of around $1000 fast or slow.

The third EW is still missing, and I am quite sure we will see it. I am in no hurry to buy anything at this time. Even if it goes up with an impulse, at the peak, this time I will be ready to short BTC only. Unless SEC approves the BTC ETF application, or some really positive regulatory news, nothing is going to make this market go up this year. Please note that this is my personal opinion only. I am not an expert and do not guarantee anything, but I wish I had shorted BTC when it was at 19.5k. I would have bought a nice car at least by now ;).



Wish everyone a good week ahead.
Comment: BTCUSD Longs vs Shorts at Bitfinex.

A lot of scope for a long squeeze rather than a short squeeze imho....

Comment:

So we have a breakout from the downtrend channel. $6650 is breached and now we have some momentum.... but then the overall daily volume is still not very convincing.

I agree with my friend @jamesasb. This is likely to be an inverted H&S pattern leading to a rally to 8.3k max before falling back to the 7k area.

But then this could also be a bull trap. Either way, I would love to short this market, but I am unable to monitor it due to family reasons.

Wish everyone all the best.
Comment:

I still this there is a possibility of a 3rd EW down. Timing may coincide with the G20 summit in mid July (around the 19th of July if I am correct).
Comment: Supports versus resistances - with a background declining volume.

4 hour chart:


Daily chart:


I am waiting for the Y shaped bottom. Without it, the volume is going to decline gradually.

Low volume ==> low volatility
Comment: We have a potential inverted H&S formation with the current drop forming the right shoulder. $6800 zone has been a very tough resistance level to cross.



There is a lot going on with EOS, and I think this current drop has been triggered by Block.One intervening to vote for EOS Block Producers. The reaction in pointing out towards market price manipulation from various sides, so that EOS goes down in price as much as it can. The timing of G20 next week is impeccable too. If EOS can be taken down to a point where $200 million, 400 million or even $600 million can neutralize the 'threat' from Block.One votes, i.e. 100 million EOS against their holdings, then things can and probably will become interesting. I could be wrong, but then everything is pointing in that direction.

This market gets crazier every day....
Comment: Daily volume is too low now. Can fall further before some major movement up or down. We can expect something like 18th March (up) or the 10th of June (down) to happen tomorrow.

Market sentiment is not very good. Also, we have G20 summit on the 19th and 20th of July, where we will hear something regarding crypto exchange regulations. If positive news after that, we should see a rally of around 2-3k+ from the bottom price. If not, then well.... you know what to expect.

Comment: Wyckoff logic...



Educational/informative details here:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:wyckoff_market_analy

I think 5k BTC is still in the cards... and looking at whatever is happening with alts right now, I would not be too surprised. This whole corrective rally came out of nowhere.... May be G20 can trigger something.

Of note, BTC can still go higher, which means that BTC is still reaccumulating at the current level and can go as high as 8-9k ish, but after that it should go down... to test 5k support properly this time. Could be slow though.
Comment: I still think that this is a Wyckoff scenario here. BTC is either in the distribution phase or re-accumulation phase. To make things more interesting, there is strong resistance developing at $7600 level. Anyone who recently bought BTC at or above $7600 level would now also be ready to breakeven or close their long positions due to 1. uncertainty in the market, which in turn is reflected by, 2. very low volume, and 3. whatever is going on with the alts market. At any rate, I do not see BTC crossing the 10k mark over the next few months, unless news arise that CBOE's ETF application has been approved. Now there is very little likelihood of that being approved in my honest opinion. The Winklevoss twins are the main people behind CBOE's ETF applications. Winklevoss brother's previous attempts were futile. This is CBOE's second application as well. The first one was refused and no one even heard of the outcome. SEC will have to come up with a very good reason to approve this one given the recent Fed Gov comments and other senators comments, plus election meddling scandal involving BTC. But we should be prepared for all three (yes three) outcomes (ETF application approval, refusal, refusal with now news regarding the outcome like before). If refused and this comes out in the news, BTC goes down in price by at least 25%, probably more. If refused but nothing is reported, BTC falls down slowly... If accepted, BTC goes up in price, and then the same thing happens - 'buy the rumor sell the news'. BTC ETF will not make things very special for BTC directly, just like futures didn't do much... anyone who wants to make money without buying BTC can still bet on its price... and let's be honest, we are all betting on BTC's price one way or another. We want to buy it to sell it at a higher price to the other person. So far I am not aware of angels accepting BTC as a collateral payment for our committed sins so that we can avoid time in hell... he he.

Anyway, I definitely think cryptos are here to stay, and maybe at some point BTC will cross $100k mark in the future. I am not going to bet my appendages on it though. Nobody is eating them, including me.

Coming back to the current charts, my most bullish scenario is this:



Wave 4 can, however, go as low as $6850. Any lower than that, and it will be Wyckoff rather than an Elliot Wave.

Trade with caution. This market is confusing even the most experienced traders... It is your money and you are the best person to make the decisions when it comes to trading or investment.

One more thing, regardless of what happens with BTC's price, I think ETC, BTG, ZEC, XLM and NEO are best investments right now. Many other alts are extremely oversold already, but if BTC goes down to say $5k, which will happen at some point I still believe this year, then all of the alts can and will probably fall with it. In that case, these alts are more likely to recover and should go up fast.

I think LTC still has a lot of room to fall rather than going up. It should be at $50 or lower right now. Just my personal opinion.
Comment: Sorry , forgot to change the scale on the chart above. This one is now isn log scale at 4-hour interval...

Comment: On a linear scale, BTC has touched the downtrend line already... (this is from Bitstamp data as I do not want to alter my settings on the Bitfinex one :) )





1 hour scale:
BEST CHART I HAVE EVER SEEN
+1 Reply
doctorkesh ilkayozcelik41
@ilkayozcelik41, Thank you :)
Reply
would you please explain more about your new update as a educational lesson?
Reply
doctorkesh Rezachegini19761355
@Rezachegini19761355, Last update is about margin trades on BTCUSD pairs at Bitfinex. Longs versus Shorts. They are at a junction, which means market is indecisive. However, on the 1-hour chart, there is a potential of further price drop.

At this time, the entire market is in a stall phase. Many things going on, and most of them are bad. Please see the next update for links.
Reply
@doctorkesh,
Thanks a lot
Reply
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