Elliot wave next steps tells us when we could buy in

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Some time ago when BTC was at $8k, I charted a path to $3k, you can see it here. This worked out almost exactly as planned, albeit on a longer timescale and a slightly truncated wave 5.

We are now most likely either entering a new wave up, which is likely to way exceed the $20k peak or we are performing a pull back before another impulse down. Either way, in the short term I am expecting a pull back. We may go up to 10k is this wave, but I doubt it. 1 Day RSI is well over bought. We have reached the 0.236 retracement of the impulse wave down from 20k to 3k.

If we are in a new wave up, history has shown that this early wave typically has a strong pull back, accompanied with RSI 1D hitting around 30. The Fib retracement would likely go to around 0.5/0.382 of this wave from 3k, which depending on timing would coincide with the lower diagonal support at around 5k.

I wouldn't be shorting this but I will be looking to buy in if the retrace occurs and I see the support holds.
May 18
Comment: This could be the beginning of the retrace I was looking for, having completed wave v (shown in blue) to now push down in a three wave retrace. The 1D RSI is currently being supported on the trendline, this may hold and we may be entering the wave v (shown in orange) for a push to around 9k.

To buy in I am looking for a clear signal that the wave v has completed and for that I would need to see a more significant pull back to support at around 5-6k and a 0.5 - 0.618 correction of this wave sequence up. This should also reset the over bought signals on the 1D RSI, lining up nicely for a big bounce and a large wave 3.

It may not come and we could keep going up from here, but that's not something I will buy into at this stage.


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