benjamesmurray
Long

Uptick anticipated in order to continue cycle

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The coral trend indicator from lazybear on a daily time frame paints an easy to read pattern that highlights the dips and troughs seen throughout this year.

The current cycle to the trough appears ready to end and the trend to the next peak requires an immediate increase in price to paint this as expected. See the dotted line to display the expected price rise.

Following this I expect a dip out of trend as a final bear trap around mid October, and following this we'll see the behaviour you'd expect from a descending wedge .
Comment: Some analysis of the previous cycles leading up to cycle 5:

Height of price (from bottom to top) is diminishing in each cycle and the next one expected to be 10% in cycle 5 which translates to a daily close of $6805 from the low of $6180 seen on 8th September

Appears cycle lengths are reducing, with cycle 5 length predicted to be 15 days. This will result in the trend cycle ending around 7th October. The peak price will be expected to top at $6800 around 26th September.

The interesting thing to point out is that there is no room for a 6th cycle. We are either flat forever, or something will happen.

However, TA says falling wedge. The nature of exactly how this will unfurl is not yet known. But these articles are useful and will guide my trading:

http://thepatternsite.com/fallwedge.html

https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge_reversal

https://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts7.asp
Comment: Sideways as expected for a couple of days (I commented below by accident rather than updating the idea!).

I'm expecting new uptrend to resume immniently to break through 6800 convincingly and attempt 7000.

At this point will be decision time. We'll either pause briefly (or storm straight through) and break through to start the falling wedge pattern, or retrace and close the cycle for another attempt in October.
Running hotter than expected, but not by much. Might be sideways for a couple of days until resume climb to $6850 / $6900:
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