Mattytwy

BTCUSD new trend line becoming tight. 24 hour confirm

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I may be wrong, but the look of this new trend line has me wondering. It would seem to me that in the next 24 hours we may have some definitive movement. Need some volume and some Bulls. Any thoughts?
There is a 1D descending wedge which has hit on the 100EMA. Wedge patterns do not need to be perfect - as chaos is not perfect in its patterns. The probability (not prediction) was greater for the north at the 100EMA and this added to the reversal expected from the bottom edge of the wedge. The trouble with wedge pattern reversals is that it is impossible to know when price will break out in one direction or the other. I've also seen false breakouts in either direction in my trading. In addition price does not have to reverse at all.

Reply
Mattytwy Captain_Walker
@Captain_Walker, well, i guess we know how that worked out. hoping we close above the 200EMA today....or we are very much in a Bear trend
Reply
@Mattytwy, It's still happening. Thunderbirds are still 'Go'. LOL. Anything can happen in the next 24 hours.

Descending wedges are better seen on lower time frames than daily. This wedge is in trouble though, as more often a reversal is expected 2/3rds to 3/4 of the way in. A reversal now would be quite late. I'm not optimistic for a reversal. In fact I'm never optimistic, as the markets are a law onto themselves.

But look on the weekly timeframe. Price is heading into the investor zone of the Guppies. This could create an expectation (not hope which I don't do), that the big boys could weigh in.
Reply
Mattytwy Captain_Walker
Reply
Mattytwy Mattytwy
@Captain_Walker, 7600-7400 is broken.... this looks bad on all time frames.... Next support is on the fibs....6000 to 5550. I actually took some profits for the first time today so i can buy at the bottom....depending on volume....It could be the 6000-5500 or even the old resistance level at 4500 to 3800. Who knows.? Will watch for signals and MAs.... Buckle up tight. There is just no volume and lots of media FUD.
Banking establishments and old men in their ivory towers are worried and this looks like a concerted effort to shut this market down.
They can't stop crypto but they can send it back to the stone ages in terms of investment.
But surely when the whales do decide to show up, it must have some recovery
Reply
@Mattytwy,
The big boys don't seem to like price in the Guppy zone. :)

+1 Reply
Mattytwy Captain_Walker
@Captain_Walker, Guppy EMA is a new one to me.... how did you come across these and do you have any links for lessons??
Well we are back in my first support zone again after briefly bouncing off the top of 6000sats. should have set up a small buy in at that point but hey ho...Ill do that now.... the jury is still out for a trend change just yet and we may test again!!
Early days to start thinking about a reversal but things look better than they have for the last few weeks.
Picked up a divergence on the MACD and RSI on the 4hr after a small downtrend. Lets see if this plays out as hoped.
How are you playing this?? HODL or trading?

Reply
@Mattytwy,

Loads of stuff on Tradingview where I discovered Guppy (aka GMMA). Additional stuff here (links posted, not sure it'll show up):

1. http://www.newtrader.club/2015/06/22/trading-with-guppy/
2. http://www.newtrader.club/2015/07/03/finding-entry-stop-loss-points-using-guppy/

The bounce of 6000 is probably a relief rally. Price is now struggling around 8200 and pressure is for the downside.

You mentioned that you 'should' have set a long position around that level. This is hindsight bias. See CSW in this (link posted): http://www.newtrader.club/2018/01/26/is-volatility-your-friend/
+1 Reply
Mattytwy Captain_Walker
@Captain_Walker, ha ha ...Hindsight bias.... in Poker we call it chasing the rabbit.! Yeah I never beat myself up on these calls.
Thanks for the links.... interesting reads
Reply
@Mattytwy,

Nice. The big trend with this is for the south. In the last two days BTCUSD price has been struggling against the tide heading south. The greater probability is for the south. It could go north in the lesser probability. I play the probabilities and accept my losses. I still suffer with 'coulda, woulda, shoulda' on occasions - yuh know that gut feeling that makes one feel stupid. But I'm shrugging it off . :)
Reply
EN English (UK)
EN English
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out