The key points I’ve taken away from my “guestimation” are as follows:
- The % drop in price at key levels are scarily similar thus far between 2014 and 2018.
- The bull market of 2014 was far more explosive in a shorter period than that of 2018.
- This bear market has sold off far faster than that of 2014
- The key areas of price I’ve highlighted show the 2018 bear market has taken roughly half as much time to sell off as 2014 did.
Time Duration/Price movements.
2014: Blow off top to amber low = 19 Weeks, -71% drop in price
2018: Blow off top to amber low = 9 weeks, -69.8% drop in price.
2014: Amber low to bull trap = 7 Weeks, 100.53% increase in price.
2018: Amber low to bull trap = 3 weeks, 98.8% increase in price.
2014: Bull trap to purple bottom = 33 Weeks, -77% drop in price.
2018: Bull trap to purple bottom = 16.5 Weeks, ? drop in price. ***
2014: Blow off top to purple low = 59 Weeks, -86.82 drop in price.
2018: Blow off top to purple bottom = 30, ? drop in price***
***estimated time as the market appears to be taking roughly half as much time to sell off.
CMF dips below 0 before final bottom.
Long story short, we could be in the final leg down but more than likely this is BS ;)