Bitcoin (BTX) CRASH, Doom and Gloom Reality Check !!!

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
As I said in my previous Post, I sent out this chart on 19th January to my group suggesting BTC would break to 6000 level (5600 to be specific).

Please check this chart :

BTC is heading to 12K and a lot of optimism is building up BUT with "caution"; faith and trust has been damaged somewhere and sentiments are broken. At one point it was hard to believe that BTC could even go to 6000, in many of the retail buys and passionate Crypto fans immagination. This has now completely damaged the belief.

If I see the buy and sell volumes of major exchanges then there were roughly 8 million BTC which were bought between October and the day BTC touched 6000 mark, there are roughly 4 millions BTC sold so far between October and now. This suggests that almost half of the BTC are still on hold which were bought during the boom. They are the one who missed the party while BTC quickly moved to 6000. They are the one refused to book profit when BTC moved down below 10K. What are they going to do if BTC arrives at 12K? Are they still going to hold for 20K or are they going to book profit and get rid of it? Certainly the big ones would offload some or all. What would happen if 4 millions BTC are pumped into the supply?

Since BTC now is heading to 12K, is it going to boom again? Well, if you see the chart BTC broke double top support line and therefore, already confirmed the reversal, which is quite normal for these reversal patterns to test the broken support line. So, as I mentioned in my user group, a "dead cat bounce" was expected at 6000 level. BTC has already established a downtrend and hasn't finished the bottoming up yet, much will also depend on how BTC reacts to 12K area. But looking into volume since 6000 low and until now, it looks a "dead cat bounce", its highly likely that BTC will test 6000 again and I expect BTC to breach 6000 support and go down to below 3000 level by end of the year.



I missed my chance to long at 6k and hesitated thereafter. I'm hoping for a retest of the low but what we've seen in the last few weeks since the drop leads me to believe that is very unlikely. We didn't even retrace to the .382 on the 4th. Super bullish. It feels very much like the rush to buy that we had in October/November. Then there were also analysts saying don't buy here to there sit out of the market here. Using the 50/20 MA rule on the 4hour would have allowed one to beat all of the analysts. I don't expect new highs but some kind of equilibrium pattern so 17-18k is likely imo. I appreciate your chart and point of view though.
@RyanBrook, whoever might have noticed the volume on 6/02 with clear piercing pattern, knew there will be "dead cat bounce".
+1 Reply
mmmp12 CryptForecasts
@CryptForecasts, Yeah, people are so clueless about it. It was prolonged and overxtended, but new low is immienient.
super negative.... any reason why you don't think it can repeat prior waves of down and up?
That is a death cross.
CryptForecasts DivineLawnmower
@DivineLawnmower, Correct !
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