I'm revisiting one of my previous TA & Market Analysis pieces circa a month later - the BTCUSD 100d MA Bull to Bear Analysis
Charting the bull to bear price action back to 2012, I was able to then create a picture of the market cycles based on the 100d MA acting as support. My rationale behind this was that as markets are cyclical I wanted to gain a view point from a long term investing perspective allowing for potential risk management on the downside.
| Detail |
The questions I wanted to answer through this analysis are:
- How is the BTCUSD market/price action changing as it matures
- Market forces triggering Bull extensions to Bear retracement
- What was the performance of each bull run in relation to the previous
- How long does the BTCUSD price take to move from Bull to Bear and vice versa
- What correlations and thesis may we see and conclude on (if any)
| Breaking The Chart Down |
From the analysis we can see that the average bull to bear run lasts ~115 days (excluding the latest trend). Within my previous analysis I had predicted the last dip would meet the 100d MA support around $5000 USD at approx 21st Nov 17.
As you can see from 1) we didn't quite meet that - BTCUSD reached around $5800 (within ~14% of my prediction) before moving forward with the latest bull run.
In this bull run, you can see from 2) that we are now at day 96 of an average 115 bull to bear days. That indicates another 19 days of potential price action to the downside before hitting the 100d MA support. You can also see that would take roughly a 45% correction from the present price.
With that said, the biggest piece that I find the data and charting reveals, is that 19 days takes us to 7th Jan 2018. Now I don't know if this will actually shake out this way, but that is very close to when people come back online after the festive holiday season, and need to establish their tax positions for the coming year (in the USA at least) - potentially taking their profits from 1st Jan onwards would make a lot of sense in relation to the potential downward price action towards 100d MA support.
| Conclusion |
Coupled with the fact Alts are firing ahead, it's going to be a very interesting few weeks while we wait to see what affect the above has on the market. This bull extension has certainly been exuberant - and we may well need to see some sort of correction at some point to level it off.
Position: Neutral - BTC is a beast of it's own, and making accurate predictions is a tough call. However, self-fulfilling prophecies are heavily at play within the crypto sphere.
For anyone interested in the spreadsheet I created with further detailed figures behind the above charting and analysis, please join A Game of Coins on Slack.
A Game of Coins
Created to share | Cryptocurrency| Trends | Trading | Investing | Data Analytics
Join us on Twitter and Slack