joelsmalley
Short

BTC bubble mania, pop scenario

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
2513 views
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2513 18
Mania Phase is done. Blow Off Phase has begun. Bull Trap, Return to "normal" could see $16k before crash to under $2k.
Comment: Just for the record, I drew the lines on this very quickly and it's based on a broad theory of economic bubbles so my price targets can be taken with a wide degree of margin. If you overlayed some better technicals you'd get more reliable targets.
Nice chart. I expect that many who were caught holding air after the fall from 20000-ish would be looking to limit their losses, thereby selling off. So the rebound to around 114000 (at this time) may not go much further (not a prediction - as I could be wrong). There is also a bunch of new hopefuls pushing price up. However, this has been an overheated market which is still bearish from a daily perspective. Sellers should predominate. A lot of people buying into the recent rally would also be looking to take profits, cuz they know this is a bear market. They would wanna take profits before price moves south i.e. they got lucky.

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I still come back to this chart and hit play just because its so damn satisfying. nice job.
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Gosh, "Bull Trap" was almost spot on, now heading for "Back to normal". I see $23K and then Fear, then Despair. (Should have bought XRP by then).
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Hi mate, very possible scenario how ever I think BTC is going to face more resistance til the end of the year then I expect Jan to be a very bullish month from the 2nd month in. Still very early days for crypto with growing popularity
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HODLBro Bannoski92
@Bannoski92, ouch... for the record January is always a bad month for shares/stocks/crypto (look at last few years and bitcoin has crashed every year in january...)
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I look forward to the results either way... either you're right, and good on you, or you're wrong and you might lose street cred with your forecasts. I personally do not see this much of a majot correction. I did read about 2 weeks ago the prospects for a a Major short now that futures are in the mix. but I kind of think that the value even at a corrected Level is higher than your bottom end despair Phase ( lol ) ... but ist possible to settle back at an enthusiam Level if News of owner sales, hacks, insider trades, Regulation, and bad psychology allow for the deeper dive.
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joelsmalley CoinStorm
@CoinStorm, no possibility of "losing street cred" when putting forward a perfectly valid theory. This is based on Jean-Paul Rodrigue's 2008 theory of bubbles. There is no case for a correction to the levels you suggest. If it's a bubble this is how it plays out. If it's not it doesn't. Given how perfectly it fits so far and other anecdotal evidence like the exodus of early smart money leaving only ever dumber, fast money in (https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-12-21/bitcoin-whales-are-cutting-back) I'd say the model fits.
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CoinStorm joelsmalley
@joelsmalley, thanks for the insight. you mentioned the part about it playing out or it doesn't , what factors come into play for the reason it doesn't? I appreciate the link btw. I had to buy BTC for the purpose of getting into XRP, so my two options are to get out and wait it out.. or hope that XRP doesn't jump off the cliff. because the time delays within the already flooded network suck. The cross section short to long is an analysis in and of itself. when just going off of what is in here. But a sound theory is a sound theory so I appreciate you putting it up.
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joelsmalley CoinStorm
@CoinStorm, what I mean is I have applied the scenario that BTC is a classic bubble and it has just popped. This is how it plays out. If, however, it's not a bubble (there is economic substance and rational thought supporting its value, I let you decide) then it's just a correction and some other scenario plays out.
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HODLBro joelsmalley
@joelsmalley, looks like your street cred is looking pretty healthy right now haha
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