Personally, I believe Bitcoin is following the shown below. At the second bull run, the price peaked perfectly at the 61.8% fib level and almost immediately bounced off,
Both this and the fact that the price has followed the C-->D line has led me to believe that the price is following a hybrid and the D point will bounce off the 71.8% fib (marked D) either shortly after, or directly on the halving and a bull run will follow (up to $90,000-$100,000).
If the major is broken (shown as the red zone) it will further prove my point that bitcoin will crash further (continuing current trend) prior to the halving.
Ofcourse is it speculation, a hybrid is uncommon but the price has followed the pattern almost exactly.
I have now updated this idea with more evidence which is supported by the trend!
this can be found on my page!!