BTCUSD Long Term Forecast - Bullish & Bearish Case

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Chart tracker, minimized.
The bearish targets are not displayed in chart, too much bars in to the future :-)


Comment: I've gotta warn in advance @ May 21 '18 that if the low at 6.45k is going to hold, it's POSSIBLE to see a break at 12k up to 14.2k in advance, before the naysayers come in. It's all in the charts for months now, even with naked eye is easy to see. The odds for this I estimate lower than 30%, but if it goes to 12k again, expect it to break (bulltrap) before entering an even LONGER bear market for multiple years.

In any case, the best case is to end this bear market as soon as possible, not prolong it, that's what I think 95% of people do not understand and think I'm bearish, while I'm realistic/objective. I'm bullish long term, but I'm not here to lose money to feed the ego's of perma bulls or bears. You gotta do what you say and walk the talk.

Comment: I keep hearing people for months saying, even now many if not all, that the bear market is going to end this summer or even more foolish, that the bear market has ended and that 6k was the low... That being said, I'm over very sure all of them are WRONG.

First of all, it's almost impossible to predict time. Ever heard the saying: Nobody knows the time and hour? I've yet to see one time prediction come true, even Nostradamus couldn't do it, hah, pun intended!

With the way it's going, it's going to take MUCH longer than everybody thinks, and that is to be seen from the charts (that estimation is very high probability), can even compare it to 2014 or any other market, law of big numbers and the high manipulation of artificially keeping crypto prices high fueled by debt (gamblers on margin). Extrapolate all consolidations for those small moves last few months, what more do you want to know?

Just as people keep dreaming of lambo (price), it's the same for time.

So, I expect a long whipeout/reset and a lot of tears, which will be the transfer of wealth from the lucky (at the moment still) rich to the intelligent and patient. Then, we will hear how they better could have 'hodled' instead of trading all over the place again and on msm, before crypto is called dead once again, to accumulate for the next bullrun, when those guys are out of the market.

If any market has proven to be full of amateurs, gamblers and gold diggers, it's crypto. This will end badly and it doesn't need to happen, but it most likely will, welcome to big money. All those guys can think of is lambo and never ask question, who pays high price for you to sell high and why should they give you free money. It's all good when your neighbor feeds you for free, right? But when he stops doing it, he's now the bad guy? Think about it.
Comment: It shouldn't go below $1163 (Bitstamp; Top 2014), otherwise something is wrong with Bitcoin.

Comment: ^ For people saying that is impossible, it's clear from their account they are all new and haven't been trading crypto for at least a few years to know it's very possible. It was only 3 digits last year and everything is possible anyway.
Comment: ^ We broke the yearly moving average on Finex to the downside.
Comment: Long term investors probably are already out. If not, then enjoy the depreciation of your bags. What I'm going to do is to take the profit and waiting for the next dip in the stockmarket, before it takes of for another decade bullrun, which brings even more profits than the previous decade.

I'm not going to sit and wait until crypto bottoms, being kept artificially high, money needs to work for me and I lose opportunities by maybe having too much money in crypto instead of forex and stocks (scalping) by scam pumps fighting the natural inner workings of market and participants, instead of accepting what it is and since I'm mainly in cash after 9.6k again, it's time to scale out of crypto.

I do understand the law of big numbers and diminished returns over exponential runs and comparing to 2014, this bottoming takes a lot LONGER. Since almost everybody expects bear market to be over in summer, I feel very confident they're all wrong. You simply do not correct a bullrun of 3 years in half a year.
My expectations are 1.5-2 years correction if not entering in a full blown bear market for several years.

We're so far from the bottom since too many people call moon again when there is just 6% pump, it's ridiculous. Those people including gamblers and debt fuelers need to be removed from the market in order for a sustainable healthy bullrun. We will be close to the bottom when those guys are not active in social media anymore, not post anymore, when they give up on crypto, when the msm and whole world declares crypto dead once again, it's when I will be accumulating on a regular basis.

The longer it takes, the worse it will be for bitcoin and most shitcoins. When the mania dies out, you'll get something like tulip mania, beanie babies or any other hype. There is a place for crypto and I have good memories with Bitcoin and is my favorite, BUT, I'm not naive and stupid to lose money and opportunities that are available elsewhere. As for currencies in the future, I'm bearish and I was this since I cam to the realization last year. Currencies are NOT investments. I do enjoy to ride the next bubble and mania though and I'll be out again at the pop.

As of now, I see many traders keep losing money and they never self reflect why, so they will not learn and one day give back all their profits and even end up in loss. This market is good for people like me who like to scalp or can wait 2 months to enter a swing trade.

If you're an investor, your time is better spent researching new ico's that bring value by solving real world problems, whilst having excellent trackrecord, capabilities, etc. (your DD).

I wanted to post this for a while, but here it is, it needs to be said.
Comment: New monthly analysis BTCUSD VS Dollar index vs EURUSD. Spot the correlations, I leave the conclusions to you.
Comment: Bounced of the time trendline, amazing!
Comment: This idea becomes invalidated once the bottom is set, which I think it is. It's of course too early to tell, in hindsight everything is piece of cake, but reversal signs are already here. Path is clear for higher highs this time.

Breaking 5.925k signifies market failure, leading to 4.8-5.2, then 3-3.3, then 1.8-2k, then 1.3k, then 3 digits, which I find hard to believe, considering both FA and TA.

From TA point of view, triple bottom pattern is set, lower low is made finishing the corrective structure, retrace 50% to 13k end of year is within reason to make higher lows afterwards is now expected.

From FA point of view:
- SEC opened first door for big money to come in by labeling btc and eth not as securities. I know from personal relationships that a lot of big boys are interested in ETH and also BTC;
- Second door will be opened in July after regulations are set in stone.

Even in the case of market failure, it will be nothing like '14, because I can foresee a huge pump 50-75% almost instant and keep pumping entire day once the price is set too low, so you won't even have the chance to buy low anyway, because in such cases, the exchanges simply have outages and in the end, you buy up much higher. Everybody who remembers '14 and '15 knows what I'm talking about, the moon candles have left bottom shorters with 0-35% balance left at those times.
Comment: bitfinex - bigger picture, triangle break to 2k
bitfinex - bigger picture, zoomed in daily (from bubble to now)
bitfinex - bigger picture, zoomed in daily (macro micro) with cme end futures & target
bitflyer (jpy) - much different chart
Comment: Using TV chart, target is 5.5k with magnet, BUT, with cryptowatch is 5k and is with extension is 100% accurate for years so far, because the scaling is different (1:1 cw), therefore I expect something around 5k, not 5.5k perse, because 5k is bottom of channel + last trade of cme.

Comment: Red bearish path


good post my friend I wil keep reading it. Puts the pink sunglasses of people
+1 Reply
CryptoSwindle hodlerandco
@hodlerandco, You're welcome buddy. Yep, dealing with big money can't be shrugged off with naivety and dreams, that only leads to material poverty.