Felix000

#bitcoin mega quant move here's how and why - update

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
My last posted chart on this subject was July 29

Will the next yellow arrow move be down another leg (continuation) ? Do we have to wait for the signal line to turn up first (will create a vertical red line when it does). You'll notice that since my last posting I've added a purple volatility box prior to the day of the signal line turning negative (purple verticle line). The purple voatillity box represents consecutive days of round number lows. You'll notice that in recent times the market has never breached the highs of the puple volatility boxes. Obviously I'm continously looking for a change in price behaviour to signal a change in the bearish trend from the December 2017 high. I'll now be watching for a beak out of the of the support and resistance formed 13 & 14 August - will we get whipsaw ? Will price behaviour repeat?

Chart Key:

Custom MACD settings:- Fast Length 6; Slow Length 13; Source: Close; Signal Smoothing 31.

Pairings for creating yellow arrows - white boxes with yellow borders: 25 & 26 January; 10 & 11 February; 21 & 22 March; 5 & 6 April; 18 & 19 April; 28 & 29 April; 23 & 24 June; 27 & 28 July; 13 & 14 August.

How to search for pairings - using just the Histogram for a red candle histogram must go up, and for a green candle histogram must go down.

"Bad Ass" futures expiry - notice when you get pairings in same week as futures expiry you could get wipsaw (price will break out one way - a trap before heading the other)

White verticals in the chart relate to days of futures expiry.

The purple volatility box represents consecutive days of round number lows

Other coloured vertical lines can relate to Signal Line, Histogram, or MACD rising or falling below zero, or simply any first rise or fall - change in direction.

NOT ADVICE. ALL STANDARD DISCLAIMERS APPLY. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. MACHINE LEARNER FRIENDLY. BEYOND T.A.
Comment: The last yellow arrow should have started from high of 29 July (some whipsaw there).
Comment: When Signal Line goes negative we need Market to make a Williams Fractal high. Today 15 August it appears still in development. Will previous form repeat?

NOT ADVICE. ALL STANDARD DISCLAIMERS APPLY. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. MACHINE LEARNER FRIENDLY. BEYOND T.A.
Comment: My most recent chart post19 Aug is headed:

#bitcoin potential $8,644 - $8,309.1 if holds $6,008. new study.

Also added the following comment:

Looking at both the day and weekly chart if I was manipulating the market and wanted to achieve spectacular bull potential leading into September then I would probably spend the week till August 26 between the range made 15 August setting it up. Let's see. I had expected to see a consecutive fractal high and then a bullish fractal low - will it happen, or, just head north without? .......... the market also needs to hold above $6,008.1 to keep the potential upside going or the market could be heading lower.
Comment: ROUNDUP OF ALL MY POSTINGS

A Williams Fractal low followed by consecutive Williams Fractal highs, all we need now is a bullish Williams Fractal low above the previous fractal low for a bounce like that formed 29 June, 4 July, 7 July, and 12 July respectively. How much room does the market have for a bullish bounce?

In my post 19 Aug I questioned "bitcoin bear trap - Is it too late to work/repeat" and I marked in green the volatility of a key fractal a breach of which was previously a bear signal. To sum up all my posts about that signal it bears no resemblance to previous bear signals - mist targets, and William Fractals, therefore best to ignore it.

The next potential was also posted same day 19 Aug headed "bitcoin potential $8,644 - $8,309.1 if holds $6,008. new study" and this can't be ignored.

Since publication of the post the signal went higher (add light blue vertical), and lower (add purple vertical). The good news is that the last fractal high was made before it. Had it been made after then it would have been starting off as a red box and a sell.

So now, will the shape of the next fractal low be that of a green box and a buy? Always take only the reading of the first fractal after a change in direction of the signal line.

Can it be formed before the low of $6,008 made 11 Aug?

A break below the low of 14 Aug $5,858.6 as per my post 15 Aug "#bitcoin mega quant move here's how and why - update" favours the bears. At this time of posting that quant move still favours the bulls.

If we do get a fractal bounce then I expect it will form a key upward trend line.

How to trade these possibilities is not something I'm going to get into.

NOT ADVICE. ALL STANDARD DISCLAIMERS APPLY. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
Comment: One final point just noticed about the consecutive Williams fractal highs is that the second did not form a higher high which is unusual given past patterns. Would that be counted as bearish?

NOT ADVICE. ALL STANDARD DISCLAIMERS APPLY. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
Comment: Today 5 September no new mega quant signals, but may be time to close long position and review. Unexpected big move down has occurred today. This trade idea may have run its course. Will wait for next signal.
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