Here's is my updated chart after tidying it up, adding a few bits and also a tongue in cheek look ahead to $1,000,000 :)
Bitcoin 4 year cycle, self explanatory chart.
To test this, we will need to wait until the end of 2021(ish) when the 200W MA reaches 20k - that should be a key indicator as to when to take final profits.
As far as a geo political even affecting the price - No, this is just, in my opinion, naturual organic growth for bitcoin over the next few years based on its scarcity and its stock to flow model - (Go to twitter, find @100trillionusd and read all his shit)
If theres a global financial collapse, or ban , or a nation states its using btc - this will all happen in months.