drei4u

Doom maybe postponed this February

BTCCHINA:BTCCNY   Bitcoin / Chinese Yuan
In spite of seemingly coordinated hacks against bitcoin exchanges (maybe FUD attempt by powers that be), the price continues to crawl up. Buys continue to climb up in spite of heavy sell pressure.

The safest short position is at the higher levels of the triangle. Less safe, but good nevertheless is to set buys just above the green trend line . If the price breaks out of the triangle, expect an aggressive pump. If the price breaks down out of the triangle, there maybe a gradually increasing decline.

The likelihood of a triangle breakout is slim, absent news. See for reference.
People are buying here, because the super lagging freaky MACD with default period settings everyone uses on the daily chart is lagging so much, that the entire downtrend was not shown on it and people continued to buy nonetheless the last two days, when it usually would have been smarter to sell.

So with the MACD neglecting the downtrend we are now starting to get in super bullish areas, unless the price falls today. If the price doesn't fall and continues to crawl up today and tomorrow we have made it into a multi-week bull cycle.
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ChartArt ChartArt
Summary of my analysis:

If the price doesn't fall and continues to crawl up today and tomorrow:

wrong forecast


right forecast
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drei4u ChartArt
Almost all indicators lag. Price action is still the best. I use other indicators to confirm change in trend plus support and resistance. The price will bounce around within the triangle or the cloud. If the price breaks down out of the cloud in any time, the downtrend will resume.
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