Since the big picture is easily overlooked when we look at the smaller timeframes (tunnelvision), it's important to see the overall trend since start to now from time to time to not get biased in one direction or the other.
Assuming this is the 3rd wave since 2011, the king has one more serious bullrun to go before a big correction, but first a cyclical lesser degree correction is due before I see that happen.
For the last few years, I've seen (and still see) the 618 (golden ratio) has been a more and more significant nummer for Bitcoin (sic BTC ), so my guess for wave 5 takes this number in to consideration, as w5 equals w1 doesn't seem right when it's calculated from w4, because it would be a truncated one at a much lower price point, which I find hard to believe.
Technically, there is a possibility for 13.8k in this reactive bullrun, but as you can see and as predicted, it's losing steam over time, so the possibility becomes stronger that 9.9k was the top for this bullrun IF we break 8.85k.
As of now, there is a possibility of 10.8k, but NOT more than 11.7k.
I still expect 3.3k and this would be a confluence zone of measured move 20k -> 6k + 11.7k -> 6.45k.
From an observant + psychological point of view:
- Majority of people (to be named people hereafter) have NOT been shaken out yet. Too many longs still open and too many bagholders not capitulated;
- People immediately become bullish after a pullback from a sharp move down. In a true bullrun, people are skeptical until they're too late to step in again after a very, very long time of depression (1 month is nothing compared to 3 prior years);
- People feel too comfortable and euphoric for weeks now that this was the bottom and talking about 16k, 18k, 20k, 50k again.
I'm not telling you what to do. There still is money to be made or breakeven when you're underwater, but keep in mind there is more to lose.
Breaking 5.925k signifies market failure, leading to 4.8-5.2, then 3-3.3, then 1.8-2k, then 1.3k, then 3 digits, which I find hard to believe, considering both and TA.
From TA point of view, triple bottom pattern is set, lower low is made finishing the corrective structure, retrace 50% to 13k end of year is within reasonable to make higher lows afterwards is now expected.